While provoking an escalation of tensions in the “zone of primary responsibility of Russia”, Turkey has not yet crossed the red lines, but everything can change.
As News Front previously reported, at the end of September, another round of tension took place in Nagorno-Karabakh, which grew into clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey is on the side of the latter, which is escalating the situation by transferring Syrian militants to the region.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that the conflict is unfolding not somewhere in the Middle East or North Africa, but in Russia’s near abroad, says Turkish political analyst Kerim Has. Therefore, Moscow is interested in stopping Turkish interference. Despite this, in the first nine days of the conflict, Russian leader Vladimir Putin did not hold talks with the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan.
“It can be assumed that Moscow has some red lines that Turkey and Azerbaijan have not yet crossed. In addition, in this conflict, the Kremlin has not yet shown red lights. Rather, we see yellow, and blinking”, – the expert said in a comment for Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
He acknowledged that the responsibility for the escalation of tension in the region rests entirely with Turkey. However, according to him, Ankara can do Moscow a favour. Now Armenia is more than ever interested in close cooperation with Russia, although several years ago, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gravitated towards the West. Khas suggests using the escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh as a “carrot and stick method”. In particular, Turkey could occupy part of the disputed territories on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, having achieved an ostentatious victory. The political scientist is sure that such an alignment will make Yerevan “even more dependent on Moscow”.
If Turkey crosses the red lines, Russia’s reaction will not be long in coming. This means that there will be no “all-consuming fire” in the region, as in Syrian Idlib, where Recep Tayyip Erdogan invaded at the beginning of the year.