The election campaign in the United States, which will already be fixed in history with its chaos and unpredictability, has become even less predictable due to the fact that Donald Trump became infected with the coronavirus.
Experts’ opinions were divided: some believe that the coronavirus, even if it does not kill the President of the United States, will finally finish off his chances for re-election, while others, on the contrary, are sure that the disease will seriously improve his electoral prospects. But there is another scenario that cannot completely suit either side of the American political conflict: if Trump does become another victim of the coronavirus or is completely incapacitated by the time of the vote, the American electoral and political system may face a crisis, to which it is definitely not ready.
If you look at things pragmatically, in the case of the current president, there are two factors that reduce his personal chances of survival: old age at 74 (and, as you know, mortality from coronavirus increases sharply with the age of the infected) and overweight.
An additional negative (but, admittedly, unexplored) factor that can affect his chances is the colossal level of stress experienced by the American leader. On the other hand, Trump has the best doctors in the country and access to the best (and perhaps even experimental) drugs. In any case, if Trump dies or becomes incapacitated, the Republican Party will have to determine another candidate for the elections, and this will not be done according to the full procedure, with primary elections and intra-party debates, but according to an accelerated scenario, which involves the decision of the leading party committee. The problem with the Republican Party is that there are no political “stars” on the bench that somehow come close to Trump’s charisma and popularity. In the event of the leader’s death, Vice President Mike Pence can hardly be considered a candidate serving as his “loyal squire”, but he, too, is unlikely to be an effective successor. Moreover, as noted by New York University constitutional law professor Dan Pildes, Republicans will need to not only urgently identify a new candidate, but also get him included on the ballots of each state and, “depending on when this happens, it can be difficult: different states have different deadlines for when parties must confirm their candidates to vote”.
In addition, due to the fact that millions of Americans have already received ballots for voting by mail (which has taken on an unprecedented scale due to the epidemic), and in many states early voting has already begun, the process can hardly be organized in such a way that the replacement of a candidate passes without negative implications for the electoral outcome of Republicans. Of course, Congress may decide to postpone the elections, but this will require the consent of the Democratic majority of Congressmen, which seems unlikely, especially given the level of mutual hatred that is now being demonstrated by competing segments of the American political elite. On the other hand, a situation in which about half of the country thinks that the elections were won by Biden in the most dastardly and dishonest way can hardly be considered useful for the United States and for the legitimacy of American institutions of power, and this even without taking into account the risk of mass protests with elements of political violence.
If Trump survives the coronavirus, then in the future it may turn out that this infection is perhaps the best thing that could happen to him in the finish line of the election campaign. It may seem illogical, but there is already a precedent of a similar nature: when British Prime Minister Johnson contracted the coronavirus and ended up in the hospital (amidst not very popular and not very successful measures to combat coronavirus in the UK), his rating began to grow.
Matthew Flinders, a professor of political science at the University of Sheffield, rightly notes that in the case of the British prime minister, the “sharp rise in support” (by six percent) was short-term. However, in the case of Trump, long-term growth is not required, if he stays alive, and the peak of his rating will be just in the elections, then this will be an ideal option for him. Moreover, the specific configuration of the American culture can play into the hands of Trump, which is very fond of the stories of lonely heroes with difficult characters, overcoming difficulties and defeating powerful enemies against the circumstances. The image of the President of the United States, in splendid isolation, without assistance, walking to the helicopter that took him to the hospital is a powerful electoral advertisement, at least for the American audience. The “hospital video message” of the visibly pale but determined Trump, sitting at a table in a suit and working with documents, is also a striking visual image, in contrast to the behavior of Joe Biden, who practically does not get out of his house.
Prominent political commentator, satirist, psychologist, and influencer Scott Adams described the same phenomenon in terms that Americans can understand.
“The story about the fact that Trump, infected with COVID-19, could turn into the story of how Peter Parker was bitten by a radioactive spider. It sounds bad on paper. But keep in mind that he is now the candidate who is most empathized with because of the risk of a pandemic, whether he wanted to or not”.
New York University journalism professor and Democratic supporter Jay Rosen makes a similar assumption.
“If I were a reporter in the White House, my hypothesis would be is that they think they can still benefit from it. The victory is this: “You see? COVID-19 is not a problem. The President blew his nose and defeated him in a few days”. Working backwards from the fantastic outcome, they struggle to find the script”.
The scenario is described correctly, and if Trump recovers, then this political message will be promoted by his political strategists, and this development of events is not at all fantastic. It may well turn out that in these conditions the winner of the American presidential race is in some way determined not by the voters, but by the viruses that now inhabit the body of the incumbent president, and the doctors who are trying to save him from infection, this is unlikely to correspond to the traditional ideas about democracy, but 2020 is the year of getting rid of many illusions, including political ones.
Ivan Danilov, RIA