In 2016, it seemed that the majority of Americans supported Hillary Clinton, but the vote count was not in favor of the Democrats. Now history is repeating itself.
This was told by Marko Kolanovic, an analyst at one of the world’s largest financial conglomerates, JPMorgan Chase.
According to him, earlier it was really possible to state that Donald Trump was lagging behind Joe Biden. Now their ratings are practically at the same level, and in the near future from 5 to 10% of the electorate may pass from Democrats to Republicans. The expert explains such prospects by the mood of the Americans. Democrats have long encouraged and even supported protests, but people are tired of the protracted unrest and violence. In addition, some survey participants may give inaccurate answers, which skews the result in favor of Biden. Kolanovich estimated this error at 5-6%.
“Of course, a lot can happen in the next 2 months to change the odds, but now we believe that the momentum in Trump’s favor will continue, while most investors are still determined to win Biden,” the analyst said.
He notes that the further race will largely depend on whether the Democrats are ready to abandon support for the protests. Voters will not tolerate the former leniency, Kolanovich is sure. Moreover, the outcome of the vote will be determined by the debate between Trump and Biden.