Belarus. August 30 will be possibly a very important political day not only for Belarus, but for the whole of Europe.
These days, in general, the future of Europe is being decided. It is being solved by Russia, France, Germany, Poland. There are several options for the development of the situation.
1. Option “Polish Victory in Europe”. Poland organizes the seizure of power in Belarus. France and Germany, through pressure and promises, are trying to ensure that Russia does not interfere. Like in Ukraine in the spring of 2014. A puppet Polish regime is being established in Belarus. A new Polish empire is formed, a variant of the Commonwealth, the Union of Lublin would be called. It will include Poland as a leader, Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine dependent on it. Poland is becoming the main European country and largely dictates the future of Europe. Due to indecision, the rating of the Russian authorities inside Russia drops sharply, there is a sharp increase in political activity with unpredictable results. Perestroika №2. In Europe, a new dominant force is active, irresponsible and inexperienced.
2. Option “Lukashenko as a winner”. Poland is organizing an attempt to seize power in Belarus. But Lukashenko, relying on the loyalty of the “siloviki”, the support of the majority of the population and the support of Russia, is winning. Sanctions against Belarus and against Russia. Europe, divided by sanctions and radical regimes in Ukraine and Belarus, is degrading for a long time as a possible power. France and Germany, as incapable of leadership in Europe, are losing some of their authority.
3. Option “Russia has revolted”. Poland is organizing an attempt to seize power in Belarus. Lukashenko is not doing well. Russia is providing assistance to Belarus. Belarus chooses the Crimean scenario in a mild form. Harsh sanctions against Russia. Russia, under the slogan “seven troubles, one answer”, begins to make efforts to return Novorossia under its influence and gives direct security guarantees to Donbass, including recognition according to the Abkhazian option. Europe is entering a long period of instability and transformation.
4. Option “France and Germany take on the burden of leadership in Europe”. After close communication between the leadership of France and Germany with the leadership of Russia, the leaders of France and Germany are putting tough pressure on the leadership of Poland and demanding that they abandon their plans to seize power in Belarus by force. A compromise is formed in Belarus, according to which Belarus remains as an ally of Russia, and the pro-Polish forces get the opportunity to be a strong faction in parliament. With early parliamentary elections. Sanctions against Russia are weakening. Europe is growing sharply as a subject of international life capable of resolving acute crises.
5. Option “America rules as always”. The US really intervenes in the events in Belarus. With their inherent style of “elephant in the china shop” or “cowboy in the saloon”. Chaos is growing. The consequences are not clear. Europe pays for everything out of habit and whines in the press. Everything as usual.
These days, perhaps, Europe is choosing its future through the crisis in small Belarus. And this choice must be made first of all by Paris and Berlin. Macron and Merkel. The future of Europe depends on them.
Sergey Markov