Too many believe that a coup attempt in Belarus could provoke similar unrest in Russia. Actually, it is not that simple.
The American magazine “Foreign Policy” writes about it.
Fifteen years ago, then U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice proclaimed Alexander Lukashenko the last dictator of Europe. Now, when pro-Western forces in Belarus are trying to carry out a coup d’etat, the media remembered the old nickname again.
“But the truth is that if angry citizens succeed in overthrowing Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin will remain”, – the article says. – “Could he be next? Not so fast. Although these two have some similarities, it turns out that not all authoritarian individuals are created in the same way.”
As the FP notes, Lukashenko came to power as a “populist thug”, ready to declare war on local elites. However, in recent years, he has not been particularly keen to gain popular support. As the country’s economy limped, Lukashenko’s position became weaker. Back in 2004, he lifted the limit on the number of presidential terms. The last five votes were accompanied by attempts by the opposition to launch mass protests, but law enforcement agencies suppressed them.
“Unlike Lukashenko, Putin did his best to avoid an inappropriate seizure of power, even though he managed to rule Russia for 20 years”, – the publication notes.
In 2008, Putin resigned his presidential post in accordance with constitutional restrictions. At that time he led the government, retaining his influence. The recently held referendum will allow Putin to run for two more terms. As Foreign Policy notes, a plebiscite could have been avoided, but then reforms would have become a weapon to destabilize the situation in Russia. Voting, on the other hand, allowed legitimizing changes to the Constitution.
In addition, Russia does not ignore public sentiment and even vice versa. This indicator is carefully monitored, which makes it possible to prevent attempts to provoke a revolution in the country by taking advantage of a “single point of discontent”. Even if Putin’s ratings go down, he manages to please voters.
“He turned out to be smart enough to pacify the key electorate, at least from time to time, which makes the prospect of a nationwide uprising unlikely”, – the article says.