Arno Khidirbegishvili, a Georgian political scientist and publicist, Chief Editor of GEORGINFORM, commented on a poll by the International Republican Institute of the United States (IRI), according to which 75% of Georgians are in favor of further dialogue with Russia.
“These figures are close to the real ones, according to our, more than once well-grounded and published calculations, about 87% of Georgian citizens want a renaissance of the centuries-old Russian-Georgian relations. But this is not the point, the main thing is that the latest sensational results of the American Institute are fundamentally different from all previous polls by IRI and NDI, where from 11% to 28% of Georgian citizens were in favor of a dialogue with the Russian Federation, no more. This suggests that the trend has changed in the United States – the attitude towards the situation in Georgia has changed. I will note the reasons why this happened, there are several of them, and the main one is the Turkish factor.
President of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan is unhappy that Turkey is constantly slipping into secondary roles in the world agenda, therefore, with military actions and scandalous statements against the United States and the EU, which usually “forget” about Turkey, he constantly returns it to the spotlight. Turkey is often not taken into account when solving global problems, which prevents the ambitious and offended by inattention Erdogan from talking on equal terms with the US President and the leaders of the European Union, who do not accept Turkey into the EU as not meeting Western standards of democracy.
In addition, the rating of Erdogan himself, as shown by the last presidential and parliamentary elections in 2018, has been steadily falling along with the Turkish economy, the recession of which was provoked by the so far unbridled coronavirus epidemic in Turkey.
Therefore, Erdogan decided to act on the principle of “knocking out a wedge by a wedge” – to become the “overseer” of the South Caucasus, the main regional player, and from the position of the Tsar of the Caucasus and the Black Sea to talk with the US President and leaders of Europe. For this, a military clash between Azerbaijanis and Armenians was provoked in July this year, so that Turkey would intervene in the conflict on the side of Azerbaijan and take full control of Azerbaijan, motivating this with good intentions to protect the Azeri people of Turkey.
As for another country in the region, from the economic expansion of Georgia – to the military one, moreover, driving with weapons and askers on the new railway through Georgia from Kars to Baku, to help Azerbaijan, which is at war with Armenia, is not a difficult task. The intentions are again extremely good: protection from the Armenian aviation and artillery of the main pipelines passing through the combat zone in the Tovuz region of Azerbaijan, going through Georgia to Turkey, and from there supplying Europe. Moreover, Georgia does not exist any closer to a NATO member than Turkey – it borders on Adjara, which, according to the Kars Treaty, may soon withdraw to Turkey (see Batum-kale, already drawn on Turkish maps within Turkey).
Therefore, Washington has become thoughtful – shit, the President of Turkey, this is far from the “SALOM” President of Georgia, but the Georgian battalions of guarding American bases in Afghanistan – this is not a huge Turkish army, which is not stronger not only in the region, but it is also good to look beyond its borders!
So it’s not better to continue to deal separately with all the Caucasian players – with the presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Russia and Armenia, than with only one president of Turkey?! Now it is possible to maneuver between them, while retaining influence in the South Caucasus through the Georgian bridgehead (America has not been able to “integrate” Armenia and Azerbaijan – Russia does not give Armenia, Azerbaijan – Turkey), and if Azerbaijan and Georgia are subdued by the “tough” Erdogan, who transplanted half of Turkey after the putsch, then the case will have to be dealt with only with him and not the fact that he will share Georgia with the United States.
“So it’s no better to deal with docile Putin, who has no territorial claims to Georgia and the Caucasus, so long as the US base is not opened, as well as with the united government of the “Georgian Dream” completely loyal to the US?! Moreover, it was not possible to create a single political force alternative to the “Dream” out of the Georgian opposition, and Russia is the only guarantor of the Kars Treaty that Georgia is not occupied by Turkey, at least a part of it!”, – Washington logically decided.
This is the main factor by which the leading American institution admitted that despite all the efforts and billions of dollars of the West, the Georgian people still prefer to live in good neighborliness with Russia, due to which they live (from there, investors, money transfers, tourists, hence the Georgian export to the Russian market)”.