Russian political scientist Sergei Markov expressed the following opinion in a publication on his official Facebook account.
Belarus. Crash scenario. Today there will be the largest anti-government rallies and demonstrations in Belarus in its entire history. They will not meet any obstacles on the part of the authorities, because after the harsh suppression of the unrest throughout the week in the society of Belarus and in the world there was too much dissatisfaction with too much violence by the security forces. At the same time, there will be no violence on the part of the pro-Polish opposition, the organizers of the demonstrations, because it is important for them to show that there are many of them and that they are peaceful. First of all, it will be an imitation of a general popular march against Lukashenko. An imitation of the fact that the entire people of Belarus are against Lukashenko. Therefore, it will be hundreds of thousands of people under white and red flags.
But it won’t be the majority of the people. Today they will gather all their own. To a single person. Moreover, they will add the citizens of Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, even Russia. There is no one else for them. And they are in the minority despite the huge demonstration. Most of the people of Belarus do not want to overthrow Lukashenka by the pro-Polish forces. The authorities should not panic, but take a break.
But immediately after the march on August 16, Poland and Lithuania, the organizers of the march, will demand that Lukashenko begin to hand over power. This cannot be done in any way. The pro-Polish minority should have the right to march peacefully through the streets as much as they want. But giving power to this minority just because they call themselves the majority and they are supported by the EU and the United States is impossible. Most Belarusians sit at home in silence and expect from the authorities they support firm and smart actions in defense of Belarus, and not surrender to the Polish masters.
The main thing will happen on August 17, when Poland tries to stop the economy of Belarus by organizing a general political strike demanding that Lukashenko surrender power to Poland.
If this happens, then Belarusian engineers, workers, doctors, teachers will soon meet with their Ukrainian brothers in Polish cowsheds and in Polish fields for the harvest by farm laborers.