According to the Ukrainian political scientist, unlike Viktor Yanukovych, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko can rely on security officials and people from his entourage, but Maidan cannot be won by force alone.
The current events in Belarus, when even before the official announcement of the election results, the Belarusian opposition had already rushed to bring people and gangs of pre-trained militants out into the streets, are very similar to the events in Ukraine in 2004 and 2013-14.
“In Ukraine, in 2013-2014, the main square was seized, and the authorities did not dare to immediately use force. Maidan settled down, grew, became stronger, attracted all kinds of people. There is nothing similar in Belarus yet. Lukashenka immediately took action. This greatly changes the picture of the protest, which is turning into a guerrilla format”, – said Mikhail Pogrebinsky, director of the Kiev Center for Political Research and Conflictology, in a comment to the Vzglyad newspaper.
According to the political scientist, an important factor is the lack of a single coordinating center for protests in Minsk, as was the case in Ukraine.
But most important of all, the then Ukrainian President Yanukovych had a level of support in the country of only about 25%, while at the same time the real majority of the population supported Lukashenko. This is a very important resource, which, along with the loyalty and decisiveness of the security forces, should become decisive. It all depends on how the Belarusian authorities can dispose of it.