After the collapse of the USSR, Alexander Lukashenko did not think that a leader like Vladimir Putin would appear in Russia. That is why he has been playing along with the West lately.
He will become as useless as Yanukovych – the U.S. has said what flirtations with the West will turn out for Lukashenko.
It is said in the material of the American agency “Bloomberg”.
Recall that the presidential elections in Belarus are scheduled for August 9. At the same time, early voting began on August 4. Those, unable to do so on Sunday, are allowed to vote until Saturday. According to the Central Election Commission, the turnout was 4.98% on the first day of voting.
According to the agency, for the first time in 26 years the presidential race in the country may end differently. The pro-Western opposition, having mobilized forces around Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, wife of the arrested blogger, leads people to protest, destabilizing the situation in the country. Lukashenko could easily deal with the rebels, but in this case he will face the EU sanctions – not the best option in the economic crisis. Before in such a situation, he could have relied on his old ally Vladimir Putin, but he spoiled relations with him, flirting with the West.
“Yes, nominally he is still pro-Russian. In 1999, feeling nostalgic for the Soviet Union, he even agreed to unite huge Russia and small Belarus into a new Union State. But that was on the condition that he, Lukashenko, and not then weak Russian President Boris Yeltsin, would become head of state”, – explains Bloomberg.
Now that Russia has a real leader, Lukashenko chose to abandon his own idea of a confederation, thus provoking tensions with Moscow. Counting on the fact that Putin will not allow another hearth of confrontation with the West, the president of Belarus began to get closer to the EU and the United States. But by playing on two fronts, Lukashenko stalled.
Bloomberg predicts an “attractive scenario” of Lukashenko’s displacement.
Now he cannot jeopardize the fragile relationship with the West by suppressing opposition protests. And these rallies may well turn into a full-fledged “color revolution”.
“In this sense, Lukashenko begins to resemble Putin Viktor Yanukovych, helpless and corrupt, but nominally pro-Russian former leader of Ukraine, who was overthrown during the revolution in his country in 2014, and he became useless for Moscow”, – the material says.
At the same time, Bloomberg draws attention to the fact that most of the citizens of Belarus are pro-Russian and even speak Russian. This opens a window of opportunity for the Kremlin, which has been tested in the Crimea. With such prospects, the EU also faces a dilemma. Lukashenko, with his own controversial ambitions, has become “the best guarantor of Belarus’ independence from Russia. The Republic became a buffer zone, and Europe should have supported it. The problem is that the West has already launched a revolutionary scenario and cannot but stand on the opposition’s side in its intention to overthrow Lukashenko.
“So far, the EU leaders can only hope that everything will change in Belarus after Sunday”, – stated the agency.