The media reported that, according to information from Lukashenko’s headquarters, after the story of the detention of Russians, the rating of the President of Belarus began to seriously fall in the Vitebsk and Mogilev regions and stabilized in Minsk and in the western regions.
“The president’s rating is approximately 60-62%. But his headquarters faced a drop in the rating in the east and an increase in Tikhonovskaya’s rating. This threatens the second round of the elections. This is clearly not the scenario that Lukashenko would like to see”, – the message says.
According to the expert, Lukashenko’s technologists have outplayed themselves. Lukashenko wanted a high turnout and a high result, traditionally Vitebsk, Mogilev, Grodno and partially Minsk gave him support.
At the same time, the pro-Russian eastern voter was determined to vote for Lukashenko, the western regions were critical and the turnout was at the expense of state employees and state-owned companies.
This time, Lukashenko’s entourage convinced him that the pro-Russian voter would not be loyal. Consequently, it is necessary to cheat the nationalists and win over the critical urban voter to our side. From here, the stake was chosen on anti-Russian hysteria.
Against the background of the anti-Russian campaign chosen by Minsk, the voter in the east really began to change his position.
“People just don’t want to go to vote. They say that Lukashenko is tired, confused, leading the country into the abyss”.
The focus of Lukashenko’s election campaign was shifted to Minsk and the western regions.
Hence the calibrated anti-Moscow agenda, the theme of European integration, sovereignty and rejection of deep ties with Moscow.
“Lukashenko’s technologists decided to accumulate the effect of cooperation with nationalists. They believed that the voter would automatically go to them. And if this does not happen, then Lukashenko will agree to an alliance with a representative of the opposition. It was called this way: to ride the Belarusian Maidan”.
However, technologists did not pay attention to the factor of fatigue and political shyness of Lukashenka.
Thus, Lukashenko began to lose the pro-Russian voter. And the nationalists began to bite off Lukashenko’s rating and pump up Tikhanovskaya’s rating.
Now Lukashenko’s entourage has a dilemma: they successfully quarreled with Moscow, the pro-Moscow voter became disloyal; the opposition is playing its game, increasing pressure on the regime.
“Nothing can be done with Tikhanovskaya. She became Teflon. You can arrest, but then the whole scheme collapses. It will also not work to steal votes – this will lead to the mobilization of all opponents of Lukashenko. A low result is disloyalty and further conflict among the elites”.