Polish President Andrzej Duda is flying to Washington to meet with Donald Trump. Duda hopes to discuss prospects for military cooperation, including the potential redeployment of U.S. troops from Germany to Poland. In this uncomplicated way, the Polish president wants to tighten his falling rating a few days before the presidential election.
Poland is asking for trouble in the form of an American military base.
The Politico newspaper was the first to report on the preparation of Duda’s visit to the capital of the United States. According to its sources in the governments of both countries, the Polish president could become the first foreign leader Trump will receive after the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic.
“If it comes to an official invitation, there will be such a visit and such a meeting. We are waiting today”, – said Krzysztof Szczerski, a representative of the Polish President’s Office.
That is, the Polish leader frankly asked for a trip to Donald Trump.
The good news came on Wednesday, June 17. The White House press office reported that Duda will meet with Trump in a week. “The visit will take place at a critical time for both the United States and Poland as we rediscover our countries after months of fighting the Coronavirus pandemic,” the statement said. – As close partners and allies in NATO, the United States and Poland continue to expand cooperation on a wide range of issues. President Trump and President Duda will discuss how we can further develop our cooperation in defense as well as trade, energy and telecommunications security.
Thus, the Polish leader will indeed have to rediscover America.
And it will happen on June 24 – the very day when the Victory Parade, postponed due to the epidemic, will take place in Moscow. Whether this date was specially chosen, one can only guess, but the picture will turn out to be interesting. While Russian servicemen are marching on Red Square, the Polish president is discussing cooperation in defense with Trump.
However, today Duda needs to strengthen its position in the domestic arena rather than to piss Moscow off. The analytical portal RuBaltic.Ru wrote that back in April, the ruling party Right and Justice insisted on holding the presidential election on time. Then the undisputed leader of the electoral race was Duda. But in two months, his rivals, which is called, increased their muscles.
Today, re-election of the incumbent president no longer looks like an alternative.
This is proved by the results of several sociological polls at once. Kantar Lab reports that Duda gets the most votes in the first round, but in the second one he’s been beaten by Rafael Tshaskovsky, a candidate from the Civic Platform opposition association. The Maison&Partners company also predicts that Trzhaskovsky will win by a 3% majority of votes.
The incumbent president has so far won by a minimal margin (48.8% vs. 48%), according to IBRIS surveys. Nevertheless, Duda’s rating has slightly declined over the week, while his main opponent’s rating has increased. If this trend continues, June 28 will be a black day in the calendar for “Rights and Justice”.
Traditionally, a few days before “X Hour”, candidates fight for the undecided – those who decide where to tick the ballot at the very last moment. The results of the presidential race in Poland will depend on them.
Duda has a unique opportunity to gain the sympathy of this category of voters by asking Trump for a permanent American military base.
The Polish authorities were enthusiastic about the news of the reduction of the U.S. army in Germany. “If decisions are made to redeploy some U.S. troops from Germany, we’re definitely in the game,” Duda said. – We’ve always said that we’re open to our allies and that Americans are generally welcome in our country. That’s why our openness is such a kind of offer.
The White House has not yet responded to that offer. It is possible that all the dots over I will be set up on June 24.
Reducing the number of American military personnel in Germany revives Duda’s dream of creating the so-called “Fort Trump” – a military base, for which Poland offered to pay $2 billion from its own pocket.
“Of course, we will talk to Mr. President Donald Trump about plans for further American decisions, in which direction the units that President Trump spoke about a few days ago will be moved”, – the Polish leader assured.
Polish radio RMF FM states that another important topic of negotiations will be energy: “Americans will offer us to build a nuclear power plant. They are ready to provide technology as well as a loan for the entire project”.
Poland does indeed have plans for nuclear power development. The Energy Ministry plans to launch the first nuclear power plant by 2033 – American funding would be very helpful.
But for Duda, the Fort Trump question will still be crucial. With such a trump card up his sleeve for the election results, he might not have to worry. After all, the potential redeployment of the American military from Germany to Poland signals not only the strengthening of relations between Warsaw and Washington.
“The creation of this base will help bridge the gap between the “old alliance” and the “second-class alliance” (new members of the organization have been assigned to it for a long time)”, – says Polish General Roman Polko.
According to the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, the prospects for the creation of “Fort Trump” are negatively affected by Duda himself, who in an effort to consolidate the conservative electorate began to sharply attack the LGBT community.
It has reached the point where the Polish president described the ideology of people with non-traditional sexual orientation as more destructive than communism. He was praised by the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) for this, but Americans are clearly not happy about it. Especially former U.S. ambassador to Germany Richard Grennell – a man who plays an important role in the negotiations on “Fort Trump. He is also an overt gay man and a fighter against LGBT discrimination.
On the other hand, such a trifle is unlikely to influence the course of history (the move of the American military from Germany to Poland could well be called a historical event).
The decision will ultimately be made by Trump, for whom Dud’s attacks on the LGBT community are not a problem. The only question is whether the owner of the White House is ready to raise Poland’s status to that of the “beloved wife of the sultan”, exacerbating already strained relations with the Germans.
Alexei Ilyashevich, Rubaltic.Ru.