The likelihood of concluding an agreement on the formats of cooperation between Britain and the EU after Brexit on time is extremely small, the parties can “split up” without a deal, professor Alex de Ruyter, director of the Brexit study center at the University of Birmingham, told the reporters.
Late last week, the third round of negotiations on a free trade agreement ended. The document must be adopted before the end of the year – before the end of the transition period after Brexit. If the agreement is not accepted, the parties will “disperse”, interrupting all relations and interaction. London accused Brussels of intentionally politicizing the negotiations and demanded a change of position by June 1, the date the fourth round of meetings began.
“I don’t think that there is a chance to conclude an agreement before the end of December. Canada took nine years to make a free trade agreement with the EU and Japan. In our case, we have a non-EU country with an economy that is closely integrated with the European one. Decision all legal issues related to this integration will take years. And if you agree with the opinion of Michel Barnier (EU negotiator), then three years”, – said the expert.
According to him, the British government is too optimistic in statements that a bilateral document can be drawn up, approved and will enter into force by the end of December.
“I think that, given the desire of the British government to achieve a regulatory inconsistency, the option of not having a deal looks more likely. Of course, there is the likelihood of a “reserve airfield” in the form of an extension of the transition period, but it seems to me that the likelihood of such a development is small”, – the professor said.
The key areas in which differences remain between London and Brussels, de Ruyter called labor law, issues of state support and environmental standards.
“Britain says the EU has not included the terms it insists on negotiating with London in the draft free trade agreement with Japan and Canada. The EU’s answer, of course, is that Britain’s proximity is a major factor in this matter. I believe that the EU’s imperative is political: the state – a former member of the European Union cannot get good concessions. The fishing sector is also a significant factor, especially considering its totem status in Britain”, – the expert said.
He recalled that the Dutch, French, Spanish and Danes have the same strong marine traditions as in Britain and are unlikely to agree to an agreement that would not provide for free access for their fishing vessels to British waters.
According to the professor, if the British really want to conclude a trade agreement by the end of the year, London needs to find an approach to key areas of disagreement and the topic of fishing.
“I don’t see the EU deviating from these topics, as this is a fundamental issue for them. And I’m not convinced that the British government wants to make a deal: for ultra-right Brexit supporters who insist on an open market, Brexit itself has always been that was used to achieve a different regulatory sphere from the EU. And everything that goes beyond a free trade agreement like Canada is simply unacceptable. For them, I think, a break without an agreement would be preferable”, – de Ruyter shared .
Speaking about the consequences of a “divorce” without an agreement, the professor recalled that, according to his own analysis of the British government, Britain’s GDP would increase by only 0.16% if a free trade agreement with the United States was quickly concluded.
“At the same time, the government itself predicts that if an agreement similar to the Canadian one is reached, the British economy will be hit at 6%, and in the absence of an agreement, it will be hit at 9%. Given the problems caused by COVID-19, that’s all this is likely to destroy British industrial production and agriculture”, – the expert concluded.