The experts considered 4 possible scenarios of Moldova’s development in the period until 2030, relying mainly on propaganda stamps.
The experts of the Visegrad/Insight analytical platform have considered four scenarios of developments in Moldova within the framework of the study “The Future of Eastern Europe – Scenarios for Eastern Partnership-2030”.
The first scenario is the continuation of “pragmatic integration with the EU”, which implies “increased trade flows with the EU, better foreign trade indicators and creates favorable conditions for competitiveness and poverty reduction in Moldova”.
The second scenario is “restoration of Russian hegemony”, which, according to experts, assumes “lack of good governance, low level of democracy, growth of corruption at all levels”, which “will lead to undermining the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Moldova”.
“The strengthening of Russian influence in Moldova, supported by some political parties and their leaders, will create some discomfort in relations with the EU. The settlement of the Transdniestrian conflict will be artificially prolonged. And the high concentration of state power in the hands of a small oligarchic group will affect the entire economic, political and social development of the country”, – the authors believe.
The third scenario assumes a situation when there will be a certain détente in relations between the EU and Russia. In this scenario, “the country’s economy will grow slowly, because the road to deep integration with the EU is suspended.
The fourth scenario assumes “civil emancipation (a serious increase in the role of civil society)” – “the activity and reformist sentiment of civil society may increase” because of discontent with “weak government, corruption, weak economy”.