The president bypassed his State Department to get through to the North Korean leader. Diplomatic infrastructure isn’t enough to prepare for what’s coming next.
The internet is blazing with rumors, chatter and constant reports about the whereabouts of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. U.S. and regional media have repeatedly reported that Kim Jong-un is recovering from heart surgery, in “serious danger”, “vegetative state” or even dead, generating a flood of speculation about who his successor might be and what the consequences are for the regime’s stability. President Donald Trump has done little to shed light on the rumors, stating first:
“I had a very good relationship with him. All I can say is that I wish him well”, – he added later:
“I know how he’s doing, relatively speaking. You’ll probably hear in the near future”, – Trump also bragged, – “If someone else was in this position, we’d be at war with North Korea now.”
Trump often boasted of his approach to North Korea, declaring his relationship with Kim as progress towards bilateralism and denuclearization. But Kim’s absence now shows us how fragile Trump’s approach really is.
Trump’s strategy toward North Korea was to circumvent established diplomatic processes and reduce U.S. ties with North Korea to a single, superficial channel between leaders. Trump’s direct communication did not lead to diplomatic breakthroughs: It simply gave Kim legitimacy as he continued to build up his nuclear arsenal. It also allowed Kim to get rid of Trump’s State Department officials at all other levels, interrupting negotiations at the working level and limiting Washington’s ability to obtain information about the country. Now that North Korea may face an uncertain future, the Trump administration is ill-equipped to deal with it.
Kim’s absence gives rise to a vision of major regional upheavals with disastrous consequences. North Korea may have dozens of nuclear warheads, a significant stockpile of biological and chemical weapons, a variety of ballistic missiles, and a military contingent of one million people. State propaganda has made it clear that only Kim controls these levers of military power. Power struggles in North Korea resulting from Kim’s death or incapacity could lead officials to become jockeys of the regime’s nuclear weapons control, either using them or selling them for cash. Such a development could lead to military intervention by the US, China and South Korea, paving the way for confrontations and miscalculations that could escalate into a larger conflict.
Nuclear war or “free nuclear bombs” are not the only prospects for concern in Washington, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo. An internal collapse in North Korea could provoke armed clashes between rival groups for control and provoke massive refugee flows, taxing the region’s ability to respond.
The Trump administration is not prepared to deal with the challenges North Korea has faced since Kim Kim. Trump’s unilateral decision in 2018 to enter into direct contact with Kim, as well as his suspension or purge of his negotiators after the unsuccessful February 2019 summit in Hanoi, negated bilateral diplomacy between the two countries, down to shallow letters between Trump and Kim.
At the same time, Trump’s desire for a grand bargain with Kim undermined the work of his own diplomats, who struggled to gain a foothold with their North Korean counterparts even in defining what “denuclearization” meant. It is hard to say how successful U.S. diplomats would have been in establishing meaningful and sustained contacts if Trump had not continued to defuse himself one-on-one, but Trump’s actions certainly would not have been successful.
helped. Trump flattered Kim, postponed military exercises with South Korea, and blocked large-scale sanctions against North Korea, despite the fact that Kim continued his missile tests and human rights violations, which gave Kim little reason to invest in working level negotiations with the U.S.. Thus, U.S. diplomats have never had the opportunity to establish contacts that could prove critical now, as North Korea potentially moves toward chaos.