There are three things you can look at endlessly: how a fire burns, how water flows, and how the US protects its partners from Russian “aggression”.
Seriously, how many bravura statements are made about evil Russians in the transatlantic block. Sometimes, entire organizations are engaged in building theories about the Russian army offensive, about Putin’s insidious plans. It may seem that the “aggressor” is about to snap and go to incinerate peaceful cities of respectable Europeans. Only this is not happening, but theories continue to be built, and the armed contingent of NATO is strengthening near Russia’s borders. Of course, good Europeans will be told that the military expansion is a deterrent, but is it?
To answer this question, let us recall a literary principle such as “Chekhov’s guns”. “You cannot put a loaded gun on stage if nobody means to shoot it,” wrote Anton Pavlovich once. Do you remember?
And now let’s turn our eyes to Poland – a fine example of an irreconcilable fighter against the Russian “threat”. Right now, on Polish soil near the village of Redzikovo, the Pentagon has deployed the construction of missile systems – the system “Aegis Ashore”. How many things have been said about this.
This weapon “will expand the defense potential that protects European territories, population and NATO forces from ballistic missiles launched from outside the Euro-Atlantic region,” said the Pentagon. Now the Russians will think ten times before directing their “aggression” at the Poles, Warsaw officials said. And on the background of all this, a well-known fact loomed in everyone’s minds: the American missile defense systems are not so “anti-“.
Mk-41 launchers can be charged with both anti-missile and Tomahawk cruise missiles. It was clear that the weapons deployed in Poland could strike the Russian territory. At the same time it was clear that the Russian strike systems also had a new target. This nuance gave rise to many disputes and even more military and political tensions. Meanwhile, the construction of the Aegis Ashore was delayed over and over again.
The project was to be completed back in 2018, but the deadline was broken. The deadline was postponed to 2020, explaining the delays by the problems with the contractor hired in Poland.
“We are talking about heating, air conditioning, energy supply and all those systems that allow the respective weapons to function. The contractor has had problems with the design and construction, so the progress is slow”, – said Vice Admiral John Hill, head of the Missile Defense Agency.
Eventually, he made it clear that construction would not be completed until 2022 and that a new spending column had been added to the U.S. budget. That systems “Aegis Ashore” safely remained till the moment of commissioning, idling in warehouses, it is offered to spend 96 million dollars.
The overall picture of what is happening from the perspective of NATO looks absolutely ridiculous. There is Poland – a helpless country, living in eternal fear of the aggressor. There is Russia – a vicious aggressor, the attack of which is only a matter of time. There is the defense system “Aegis Ashore” – a strategically important project, which should “protect European territories” from an external enemy. But! It cannot be built. And for the same reasons that are slowing down the deadlines for the delivery of some supermarket.
It must be assumed that the aggression is being prepared a little more responsible, and this long-lasting – not a deterrent, but the very Chekhov rifle, only not shooting.
One more example of it. And again from Poland. In 2018, Warsaw bought a batch of American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems for 4.75 billion dollars. The first deliveries should begin in 2022 and the next ones in 2024.
“This is an historic moment. We are equipping the Polish army with the most advanced defence system in the world”, – said Andrzej Duda bravuraously then.
Why such expenses? Of course, to confront Russia. To be more precise, the Russian Iskander-M missile systems. This, in particular, was mentioned by then Polish Defense Minister Antoni Macierevich. Foreign Minister Vitold Waszczykowski also repeated this to him, claiming that the Patriot SAM system would not allow attacking Poland. Two nuances arise here at once.
First, no one could say for sure whether Patriot would really be able to oppose Iskander. Obviously, there was no way to compare weapons in practice. Even in Poland it caused a resonance. The Center for Strategic Analysis said that Warsaw was buying a “cat in a bag”. Such inconvenient conclusions could only be parried by statements about “electronic modeling,” which showed the capabilities of American SAMs against the Russian operational and tactical complex.
The second point is that the Iskanders deployed in the Kaliningrad region in the winter of 2018 – four years before the first delivery of American systems. That is, the “aggressor” was given four years to turn Poland into a post-apocalyptic wasteland. Of course, missile systems being built somewhere at Raytheon’s factories are “a significant deterrent”. And yet, how much defense was the point of that deal? Exactly as much as a gun that won’t fire. This is how all the anti-Russian activities of the US and NATO are filled with. The alliance’s collective security itself is a clear example of a non-shooting gun. Erdogan recently showed it to the entire transatlantic bloc by his personal example. He showed that he had to fly to Moscow to ask for a truce in Syria.
But even if no one intends to shoot the gun, it does not mean that you cannot make billions on it. That’s exactly what the US is doing. The illusion of threat or solidarity is just an excuse to steal its product. As they say, if you have a supply, you have to create demand. And if someone suddenly asks why the “aggressor” is not attacking, you can always say that this is a sign of effective deterrence.
Eugene Gaman, especially for News Front.