At the dawn of the coronavirus infection pandemic, virologists had predicted a mortality rate of 1%, which is already 10 times more than conventional flu. Moreover, now an elementary mathematical calculation shows that around 6.4% of infected people have already died in the world.
About this writes the publication “The News York Times”.
As noted in the media, to date, almost nothing is known for sure about the coronavirus. Experts expect that new outbreaks of infection will occur until 2022. At the same time, they are not even able to estimate the mortality rate from COVID-19.
So, if in Italy this figure is about 13%, then in the USA it is about 4.3%. These statistics vary greatly depending on the geographical location. For example, in Los Angeles the number of deaths is almost 2 times less than in New York, and in the states of Michigan and Wyoming – 7% versus 0.7%.
The publication notes that virologists have not yet found confirmation of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which could lead to more terrible consequences in a particular region. Also among the factors discussed are population density, age and prevalence of major diseases.
But all this does not remove the question, why is there such a big difference from country to country?
Ali Mokdad, a professor at the American Institute of Health Indicators and Evaluation, notes that to estimate the level of mortality, it is necessary to know the number of infected people.
“We know how many people are dying, but we do not know how many people are infected,” he complained.
But even the number of deaths is an inaccurate indicator, they continue in the publication. For example, in New York, the number of deaths has already increased by 3.7 thousand people, who, according to authorities, have never received a positive result on COVID-19. The reason for this is an incompetent approach to combating the epidemic. So, in many cities in the United States, people simply refused to test, fearing the lack of test systems and beds in intensive care units. Nevertheless, experts are not able to systematize the situation. As a result, the only thing that American experts say is the absolute vulnerability of everyone, regardless of external factors. Total self-isolation and tight control are thus designated as the only way to combat.
“No one has prior immunity,” says Andrew Neumer, associate professor of public health at the University of California. “It doesn’t look like flu at all.” When there were a few early cases in New York, they spread like crazy. But why won’t there be a COVID epidemic in Des Moines? What is so special about Springfield, Illinois? Social distancing will end, and people will begin to become infected and die again. ”