Until recently, the thesis that “the United States may fall apart” caused nothing but mockery. Previously, Washington, which politicized the situation with the coronavirus in Iran, accused the authorities of this country of “incompetence, lack of ability to establish a qualified government”. Now Americans themselves are overwhelmed by the waves of pandemic. In this situation, Tehran began to beat the U.S. on the most painful spot.
Secretary of the Iran Efficiency Council and former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Mohsen Rezaee said the U.S. could break up into several states after the coronavirus crisis ends. He added that the high costs of the barren build-up of U.S. military power in other countries, the inefficiency of Washington and the states’ mistrust of the federal government act like a “time bomb”. According to him, “the U.S. can become a Commonwealth state in the post-coronavirus world.
Until recently, such a thesis caused nothing but mockery, and such statements were elements of an acute political and information war being waged between Washington and Tehran. Especially now, when the U.S. began to over-politicize the situation with the coronavirus in Iran, accusing the leadership of this country of “incompetence, lack of ability to establish a qualified government, which leads to high mortality among the citizens of the country”. But now that the Americans themselves are overwhelmed by the waves of pandemic, this attack on Iran is perceived differently in Tehran.
Rezai was not the first to talk about the possibility of a “commonwealth of independent states” in the U.S., when local elites become separatists and establish boundaries between the former parts of the whole. American experts themselves openly write about this, pointing out that “the federal government has come into conflict with the authorities of some states regarding plans to combat the coronavirus and many other issues.
We are talking about California, Texas and even New York, which call into question the competence of the “federal partner”. Analysts call “new states: California, the Central North American Republic, Atlantic America, the Republic of Texas, Alaska and Hawaii. “Federalism in the United States has always had problems,” says Bloomberg. – But conflicts are escalating, and there’s no resolution. Symbols of division are appearing”. Of course, all this can be perceived as a manifestation of domestic political struggle in the year of presidential elections, when the ideas of “separatism and civil war” are consciously thrown into the information and political space. And Iran is reacting to this. Certain political circles in Tehran believe that another Persian prophecy, according to which “the prospect of what happened to the USSR at the turn of the 1990s is looming before the United States”, is coming true. By the way, one of such prophecies stated that “the collapse of the United States will begin after a series of their failures in the Middle East and will follow after clashes with Persia.
American expert Stephen Cohen and Kathleen Braden, Professor of Geography at Seattle University of the Pacific, recently wrote about the scenario of a possible development, analyzing the consequences of “the endless U.S. interference in the affairs of the Middle East, which is setting the whole Islamic world against the Americans.
The dates of the collapse of the United States were also called. According to Cohen, “five years after the 2008 crisis”. As we can see, the deadline for implementation of the forecast has long expired. However, the problems outlined remain topical. The fact is that the Middle East is very sensitive to the strength and weakness of external players. They are quickly catching the moment when “Akela misses”. Signs of “hegemon’s” health are not only talked about in Iran. The other day, Turkish edition of Sabah noted that the coronavirus pandemic “has undermined the three most important pillars of U.S. global power: the quality of governance in domestic politics, strategic vision, as well as the ability to lead the world in managing crises. In turn, many Arab media noted that Washington’s apparent desire to gradually reduce its military presence in the region to “manage from afar” leads to the formation of a new regional international system associated with processes of radical transformation.
This is happening in a situation where the European Union does not have a Middle East policy doctrine and the resulting geopolitical vacuum is being filled by Russia and potentially China.
At one time, U.S. President Barack Obama, going to sign an agreement with Iran on nuclear program, intended to fill this vacuum with Tehran instead of Ankara. But Trump, at the same time, significantly weakened Turkey’s regional influence and began to nurture plans to fragment Iran, imposing all sorts of sanctions on it. In addition, says Joseph Nye, a well-known American expert, the president began to refuse to build a balance of asymmetric interests with Saudi Arabia “due to changes in U.S. energy supplies. There is no doubt that the Americans would continue to follow the chosen tactics and strategy in the Middle East, leaving behind chaos and geopolitical disunity. But the coronavirus intervened, which narrowed the period of historical time for the implementation of the planned scenario and imposed restrictions in the battle of Washington with Iran.
Therefore, Rezai’s statement about the possible collapse of the U.S. and its future political future, even if the thesis itself is conditional, is a blow to the ten and is designed to cause a giant information wave, which in principle can change the “big game” at the regional level. Will it succeed?
Stanislav Tarasov, REGNUM news agency.