The spread of coronavirus creates a situation both for new interaction between the countries of the Middle East, and for filling new meanings of relations between Turkey and Russia.
Another joint Russian-Turkish patrol took place on the M-4 highway in the Syrian Idlib de-escalation zone. The movement of the column from the air was controlled by unmanned aerial vehicles of the Russian Aerospace Forces, and the interaction between the parties was carried out through the Joint Coordination Center. The M-4 highway is the most important transport artery in Syria, it connects the economic capital of Aleppo with the main port city of the Republic of Latakia. In this situation, the fact of patrolling, regardless of what and how the parties control, acquires important psychological and political significance because Moscow and Ankara demonstrate their commitment to fulfill the commitments made during the last meeting on March 5 between Russian and Turkish Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Recall that earlier Ankara announced the possibility of conducting a military operation in Idlib against, according to the Turkish publication Evrensel, “radical groups”. But because of the coronavirus pandemic, this idea had to be abandoned; the country’s Ministry of Defense decided to minimize the general movement of Turkish troops in Syria.
Now the situation in Idlib is relatively calm and static. After the ceasefire announcement, the situation is as follows: inside the province, the situation is controlled by the jihadist group Khayyat Tahrir al-Sham (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation), which is not covered by the ceasefire. In turn, the KhTSh (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) stated that “it will not abide by the ceasefire”, which theoretically implies the resumption of hostilities at any time, while the Russian-Turkish agreement eliminates the possibility of clashes between the Turkish and Syrian armies, which was just recently.
The dialogue between Ankara and Damascus is discussed only at the expert level, which keeps the parties suspicious of each other regarding further actions. It is this factor that explains the desire of certain forces in the region to “warm up” the Idlib field. First of all, we are talking about calls to both Ankara and Damascus, which have become more frequent in both Turkish and some Middle Eastern media, “to use the situation and seize the initiative in the Idlib direction.” There are allegations that “Damascus and Moscow are preparing for the operation, believing that the US and the EU in a pandemic are not able to show the expected reaction to the course of events,” with the aim, Evrensel writes, to provoke a crisis primarily between Turkey and Russia, or rather, to undermine the alliance between Putin and Erdogan. With hints that even if “HTS (an organization whose activity is prohibited in the Russian Federation) attacks Turkish troops, then Moscow will be behind it.”
Therefore, Turkey must act proactively and strike at the HTS (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation) in order to “wrest this boomerang and gain a strong position in Syrian bargaining.” That is, it is argued that “the coronavirus pandemic, if it changes the Middle East, is only towards redivision of the blood-drawn state borders” and when “the coronavirus disappears, the struggle for redivision in the region will continue for a long time.” And now we can only say “about gaining time, than Turkey should take advantage of all before.” Why? Because the United States openly supports the Syrian Kurds, and Russia “is in secret negotiations with the Kurdish” Democratic Forces of Syria “and at some point” the interests of the United States and Russia may close. “
Ultimately, Erdogan is exposed to a “losing scheme”: if he enters into a confrontation with the HTS (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation), he will lose those with whom he collaborated at one time, if he does nothing, he will face Moscow and Damascus.
But there is another scenario: at all costs, to maintain Putin’s political confidence, continue dialogue and cooperation with him, consistently follow the agreements on the Syrian settlement, which will allow to get out of the regional conflict and relieve internal tension, take as a basis the solution to border security problems and refugees, prepare a direct dialogue with Damascus. It is not a secret that some Arab countries in the new conditions began to show increased interest in their more active presence in the processes of the Syrian settlement and pushing Turkey out of there. Plus, Libya, where events for Ankara are not developing so unambiguously, given the restoration of diplomatic relations between Damascus and the East Libyan government. In a word, the spread of coronavirus creates a situation both for a new interaction between the countries of the Middle East, and for filling new meanings of relations between Turkey and Russia.
The choice is Erdogan, his readiness to continue to follow the commitments made and to avoid the risks of new regional conflicts that will have serious consequences.