In an effort to demonstrate his strength to the world, Recep Tayyip Erdogan made a much less pleasant discovery for himself. He just went too far.
Of course, Erdogan cannot be called the most successful player in the Syrian campaign. The United States entrenched around oil fields. They have long spit on the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. By inertia, Washington throws angry statements at Damascus, while simultaneously earning dirty, but solid money on Syrian oil. Official Damascus, meanwhile, has accumulated a considerable number of victories in the struggle for the liberation of Syria from militants. Russia helped him in this, thereby earning the status of a real peacemaker and fighter against terrorism.
Against this background, Erdogan’s achievements fade. At one time, he was able to have a hand in Syrian oil, but the chance was missed. Until very recently, it seemed that the situation here was under his full control, and he generously endowed the Allies with his support, without which it would really be much more difficult to overcome the hot phase of the conflict. Now the alignment has changed. Erdogan saw that the remnants of former luxury are a bunch of loyal jihadists who are mercilessly smashed by the Syrian army. As a result, in Syria there is another round of escalation.
In the past, such moments were settled by negotiations between Erdogan and Putin. Even the rapid Turkish offensive against the Kurds in northeastern Syria was stopped. The parties have always found a compromise. Only Erdogan with him did not look like a winner. That is why now he so vehemently rejects such a scenario. He needed his own war, small and victorious. Here the first problems arose.
While tensions were mounting in Idlib, Moscow traditionally was in no hurry with sharp attacks. Russia restrainedly insisted on ending the conflict, carefully hinting to Erdogan that he was going too far. It seems that in Ankara this restraint was perceived, if not for weakness, then certainly for the unwillingness to get involved in the conflict. It is logical, because Turkey is not just a partner of Russia in the Syrian settlement, but also a buyer of Russian military products. For the sake of the S-400 missile systems, Ankara even ruined relations with Washington. But self-confidence failed the Turkish elites. When it came to the clashes in Idlib, it turned out that Russian troops did not distance themselves from the battle. Aviation is still active, depriving the Turks and their loyal militants of every chance.
So it was time to call for help, and the media reported that Ankara had turned to Washington for Patriot missile systems. The request was for the United States to deploy them on the border with Idlib and intercept Russian and Syrian aircraft. Admittedly, the move is very provocative and desperate, given the differences between the Turks and the Americans.
Only from the very beginning of this adventure was it clear that Western countries were not burning with the desire to get involved in it even for the sake of NATO ally. The local conflict in the north of Syria can easily turn into a war with Russia and even a new world war. Probably, it is the awareness of this fact that holds back the American command from deploying Patriot complexes in Turkey. Sources of Politico reported that State Department officials really like this idea, but they do not bear responsibility for a Russian plane that was shot down once. By chance or not, the consequences are easy to predict.
Erdogan understood that he could not wait for support. What he clearly did not understand was that his campaign would not go according to plan. The decision to use Article 4 of the NATO charter was doomed to failure in advance. This was a political formality, in response to which Ankara received the same formal political support.
Special in this story is Erdogan’s provocative decision to incite refugees into the European Union who were still being held in Turkey under the agreements between Ankara and Brussels. What is so special about it? First of all, it is obvious that European countries would not have reacted to such a destructive gesture in the style: “Okay, okay, we all understood – we are going to help.” And even more so, there was no point in waiting for military help to come. Why then was this necessary? Why spoil relations with allies at the most inopportune moment?
The answer is simple: Erdogan no longer needs his small victorious war. Idlib adventure was bogged down without a chance of success. To drag out the conflict means wasting strength, sacrificing even more soldiers and shamefully retreating in the end. The idea with refugees became a cry of despair for Erdogan.
“The Idlib problem turned out to be almost 4 million people who rushed to our borders. Of these, 1.5 million are currently on our borders. We are working to create a safe zone. 3.7 million Syrians live in our country, but we are not able to cope with the new wave of refugees. The purpose of the crisis in Idlib is to drive us into a corner, ”said Erdogan.
This message is addressed directly to European leaders. It’s funny that he appeared after the borders were opened. So, Erdogan is trying to show that Turkey is the last frontier, saving the Old World from a new migration crisis. At the same time, a crowd of thousands of migrants who are now storming the Greek border is a demonstration of what will happen when Turkey is nevertheless “driven into a corner”. Now this is the last hope that Germany and France will help a political settlement.
It is clear that for the Turkish leader to go on a world with Russia is the best option. At the same time, this step is comparable to surrender. Therefore, he had to create the conditions for Europe to really provide him with political support, expressed not just on paper. Now Macron and Merkel will have to “reduce” Erdogan to Putin.
If this does not happen, and the conflict in Idlib continues, then Europe will drown in the flow of refugees. If the situation can be resolved, everyone will benefit. The massacre in Syria will end, refugees will quietly block their path to the EU again, and Erdogan will say that for the sake of European partners and the common good he had to heroically retreat.
True, the price of a failed adventure is too high. When everything is left behind, it is unlikely that in Brussels they will favor Turkey after such a setup. She has already spoiled relations with the United States, and is unlikely to improve. In the end, Ankara has already bought the S-400, and abandoning them will be the height of the absurd. But much sadder is that Erdogan had a reliable ally who in the past even helped him avoid a coup d’etat. It’s Russia. And although the conflict will be settled, and the leaders of the two countries will shake hands, the sediment will still remain.