Conservatives with a crushing score won early parliamentary elections in the UK. At the beginning of next year, their leader Boris Johnson will elegantly withdraw the country from the European Union. This will restore the subjectivity of Great Britain and put an end to the dramatic erosion of the British nation by emigrants. It seems that with this island kingdom will be able to maintain European markets, restore the position of a major industrial power and a global financial center that will serve the interests of the Arab world and China.
After Donald Trump came to power in the United States, Brexit is the second most important event on the world political scene. Anglo-Saxons abandon the function of total financial and power control over the world and focus on solving the problems of their own national development. England, in particular, refuses to “steer” the EU.
The consequence of these two important geopolitical changes will be the emergence of a greater degree of freedom for continental Europe, which in itself is good for its development. However, the weakening control of the Anglo-Saxons will lead to an intensification of the struggle between the continental countries for leadership and the resulting increase in material wealth.
Germany and France traditionally claim leadership in Europe. Germany is still bound by obligations, as a country that lost the Second World War. It is still occupied by US forces and bound hand and foot by legal rules, such as the “Chancellor of the Act.” Until now, Germany has not signed a peace treaty with the United States, Britain, the USSR (Russia) and France. That is why France, in the person of President Macron, began to show extraordinary activity. Germany is “playing along” with the boy from the Champs Elysees, also hoping to become a subject of world politics under the guise of. Economically, she has long been ready for this.
This is where the Great Road begins to transform the Potsdam world system that developed after the Second World War.
In the new alignment of forces, attacks by reactionary American and European elites on Russia become clear. Either their creaks perished, then the Malay planes in the sky over the Donbass fall, then the doping samples of the athletes become positive. And all the fault of the leadership of Russia. They seek to exclude Russia from soft power instruments from the bidding process for the European inheritance.
Most likely, the President of France and the Chancellor of Germany will agree on an unspoken alliance to establish a New Order in Europe. It will be, already voiced by them earlier, the project of “Europe of two speeds”. The Eastern European countries in this project will lose the bulk of subsidies from the general budget and will simply become markets for German and French goods.
Germany and France to implement this project need political support from Russia. They will receive this support in exchange for the restoration of the role of the heiress of the USSR in the post-Soviet space. Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltic states without noise will go into the sphere of influence of Russia. Great Britain, having left the EU, will no longer prevent this. The United States, engaged in a showdown with China, will not prevent this. Otherwise, where does Trump’s demands come from: pay for your security in full, and even let us make money on military supplies? The heads of world empires do not say so.
It is possible that a situation will arise that Germany will go to the return of its territories that it lost after World War II. Indeed, most of these territories were inhabited by Germans for many hundreds of years. These are present western Poland, and the Sudetenland belonging to the Czech Republic and Slovakia, and the Klaipeda Territory, which has departed to present-day Lithuania. Poland in these conditions will begin to demand the return of Volyn and Galicia from Ukraine, once inhabited by the Poles of the western territories of Belarus, Vilnius and Vilnius Territory. Hungary will remember about Transcarpathia, which passed to Ukraine after the war. Romania will remember about Moldova and Transistria. Russia does not make sense to resist these requirements, because they are presented to foreign countries. But the fate of the Kaliningrad region with Germany can be bargained.
Therefore, a very rapid change in foreign policy orientation is required from the leadership of all East European countries. Are the ruling elites of these countries ready for radical changes in their course? Apparently – not ready. This can be judged by their recent actions.
The USA and Great Britain, having forgotten about political allied obligations, began to derive economic benefits from the countries of this region. In Latvia, for example, American business has captured the only profitable banking sector and the transit industry. Their last victims are Aizkraukles Bank, the ports of Ventspils and Riga. Next in turn are a gas distribution facility, Inčukalns gas storage, electricity networks and hydroelectric power stations. British businessmen are successfully selling to the Baltic States, which has served its entire service life and incomplete armored vehicles. No politics – pure business.
And this we are only at the beginning of the Great Way.
In the photo is a picture of I. Levitan “Vladimirovka”. For visual illustration
President of the Institute of European Studies Alexander Gaponenko