EU leaders are to hold emergency talks next week as they prepare for a “different breed” of Brexiter to replace Theresa May as Britain’s prime minister.
A dinner to discuss candidates for top EU jobs following the European elections is to be hijacked by the Brexit saga as concerns grow that May’s resignation had increased the risk of a no-deal withdrawal.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, called for urgent clarity from London shortly after May’s Downing Street statement.
“It is too early to speculate on the consequences of this decision,” the Élysée Palace said in a statement. “The principles of the European Union will continue to apply, including the priority to preserve the smooth functioning of the EU, which requires a quick clarification.”
A spokesman for Angela Merkel, who disclosed the plans to hold talks on the “next steps” in Brussels on Tuesday evening, said the German chancellor had noted May’s planned departure with respect and that the repercussions would depend on developments in British domestic politics.
Shortly after May’s announcement that she was to resign as party leader on 7 June , the bloc’s leaders spoke as one in reasserting their refusal to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement.
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, offered his thanks to May, but added: “The agreement reached between the EU and the United Kingdom for an ordered Brexit remains on the table.”
A spokeswoman for Jean-Claude Juncker said the European commission president had followed May’s tearful statement “without personal joy”, and described her as a “very courageous woman”.
She added that Juncker would treat any new prime minister with the respect shown to May, but that the commission’s position on negotiations being closed would not change.
Austria’s chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, said May had been a “principled and headstrong” prime minister and spoke of his hope that “reason will prevail in the UK and that her successor will see to an orderly Brexit”.
Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, said: “Anything is possible now, but Britain needs to be careful. From an EU perspective I think patience has run out in many ways.
“From my point of view, I do not imagine the European Union proposing to a new prime minister a better deal or a very different agreement. This idea that a new prime minister would be a more demanding negotiator and that he could get a better EU deal for Britain is not the way the EU works.”
The Spanish government described May’s decision to resign as bad news that would significantly raise the prospect of a hard Brexit.
“A hard Brexit in these circumstance seems an almost unstoppable reality,” the government’s spokewoman, Isabel Celaá, said at a press conference. She said the announcement would disappoint all those who want an orderly UK exit , but that Spain had contingency measures in place and would do everything possible to “guarantee the best situation” for Spanish citizens and businesses in the UK.
An EU official said the “almost consensus analysis” was that May would be replaced by a hard Brexiter. “Mentally we have to prepare for a different breed on the other side of the table,” one senior official said. “The Tory party will be in survival mode and in order to survive it will have to regain credibility as the party of Brexit.”
It is feared that a departure without a deal is more likely because a new prime minister’s room for manoeuvre would be “exhausted or close to exhausted”, the source said. “The Tory party will want to realise Brexit before the next general election and that’s why the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is again gaining more importance, even if the Westminster parliament wants to prevent no deal.
“We would be really stupid if we had refused the reasonable negotiators and now suddenly reopen the door” to Boris Johnson, who is favourite to win the Tory leadership contest. “I don’t think so.”
A senior EU diplomat also said it was unthinkable that leaders such as Macron would offer Johnson more than May. “It is fundamental question of our credibility at a time when the EU needs to hold the line, against populists, Donald Trump on trade and Russia. Will we it throw all away just to help a Brexiter like Boris Johnson? Can you see President Macron doing that?”.
The continuing political instability in London instead risks pushing EU capitals towards taking Macron’s tough position that a further Brexit extension beyond 31 October threatens to “poison” the bloc’s institutions.
Those willing to countenance rejecting a further extension request are not yet, however, believed to be in the majority. “It really depends a lot on Britain, but I don’t think the large majority [of EU member states] will fundamentally oppose an extension,” a source said. “As long as Britain works constructively in order not to disrupt the work of the European Union, I don’t really see the balance of opinion changing in the council.”
Fabian Zuleeg, the chief executive of the European Policy Centre thinktank, said that even in the event of Boris Johnson becoming leader the reaction from the EU27 would depend on his attitude toward the withdrawal agreement.
The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, tweeted: “I would like to express my full respect for [Theresa May] and for her determination, as prime minister, in working towards the UK’s orderly withdrawal from the EU.”