The European Parliament vote may upend the established balance of power in the EU and shatter the positions of the UK Conservatives due to the swift rise of the Right. Glenn Diesen, a professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of the Higher School of Economics in Moscow explains the new political trends affecting Europe.
The European Parliament (EP) elections scheduled for 23-26 May have become the focus of worldwide attention due to the tense political struggle between the establishment parties and the emerging right-wing coalition over Brussels’ migration and economic policies. According to the latest Politico Poll of Polls, The European Parliament’s two largest blocs — the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats group (S&D) are likely to lose a combined 98 seats, gaining 170 and 144 mandates, respectively. The two parties are ceding positions to the liberal Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) as well as to the Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF), a right-wing bloc. The latter may transform after the vote into a European Alliance of People and Nations (EAPN), led by Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini.
Salvini’s right-wing League party rules in coalition with the left-wing Five Star Movement in common cause against the EU project. Salvini’s leadership is imperative as Italy is a founding member of the EU and a G7 country. By meeting with French Yellow Vest protesters, Salvini acquired the status as the leader of the rebellion by directly confronting Macron — the principal guardian of the EU project. The populist coalition is united by the goal of changing the rules of Europe by abandoning federalism and returning to a ‘Europe of nations’. The election will have broad ramifications, as the members of the next European Commission will be chosen later this year.
Farage is apprehensive about tainting the name of the Brexit Party and his conservative ideals by aligning himself too closely with unsavoury political groups in the right-wing European coalition. Farage has previously expressed concerns about Le Pen and other political forces in Europe. In the domestic sphere he has even turned against his former party, UKIP, as they welcomed xenophobic representatives. The failure of the political elites to deliver on the Brexit referendum has made Farage broaden his political agenda. By blaming the British political elites rather than the EU for attempting to water down or reverse the referendum results, Farage has painted a target on the back of the British party system, (which remains) dominated by the Tories and Labour.
Farage’s huge lead in the polls is also remarkable, as he is unapologetic about arguing in favour of leaving without a deal with the EU. The support for this solution among the British population demonstrates a great split between the people and the political elites. Immediately after the referendum, the parliament, who overwhelmingly campaigned to remain in the EU, began to reassert its control over Brexit by differentiating between a “soft Brexit” and a “hard Brexit”. Leaving the EU on WTO rules, also known more ominously as a “hard Brexit” or “crashing out without a deal”, has been depicted as a radical and unacceptable alternative despite both major parties clearly defining Brexit prior to the referendum as leaving both the Customs Union and the Single Market. If the Brexit Party gets the votes, as predicted by the polls, it would clearly contradict the argument that the population did not want a “hard Brexit”.
If the populists take a third of the seats in the European Parliament, it will be considered a vindication for people like Viktor Orban, who has come under great pressure from Brussels and Berlin to fall in line. Success at the ballot box will therefore embolden populist leaders and pressure the EU to develop an attractive vision for the future. It could also result in political leaders being more prepared to challenge former red lines to win over the electorate. A prime example is Macron’s recent questioning of the Schengen agreement to curb the free movement of people, which demonstrates that political elites must yield to populist pressures if they want to remain in power.