Talks between the British government and the Labour Party have fallen into a familiar pattern, with each meeting followed by a moderately optimistic Conservative statement and a gloomier verdict from Labour. But the two sides have until now agreed after every meeting that the negotiations are worth continuing and they will resume on Monday for what is likely to be their last week.
The following week, days before the European Parliament elections on May 23rd, the government hopes to introduce the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB). If the talks with Labour produce a common position, that will be reflected in the text of the Bill, which both parties would support.
Few at Westminster expect the talks to produce a common position on Brexit, however, so the government can only pass the Bill by persuading most Conservatives and a substantial number of Labour MPs to support it. Even if the talks with Labour fail to produce an agreed position, the two sides could agree a deal on a process that would at least allow the Bill to pass its second reading.
Conservative MPs who are sceptical about the talks with Labour point out that although Theresa May’s deal was rejected three times and MPs voted down every alternative offered in indicative votes, one Brexit proposal has won a majority in the House of Commons. That is Graham Brady’s amendment endorsing the withdrawal agreement on condition that the Northern Ireland backstop is “replaced with alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border”.
The European Union has made clear that the backstop is an essential part of the withdrawal agreement, which cannot be reopened. When they agreed last month to extend Britain’s membership until October 31st, EU leaders warned London that “any unilateral commitment, statement or other act should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the withdrawal agreement and must not hamper its implementation”.