Against the background of the past local elections, replenishment in the royal family (the Daily Mail devoted more than 20 pages to this event) and a vivid campaign in the elections to the European Parliament, the question of brexit completely disappeared from view. Meanwhile, Teresa May’s team still hasn’t parted with her Brexit plan.
The main hope of the current Prime Minister is laying on Labor. In fact, the negative results in the local elections for the two main parties should speed up their attempts to find a compromise. In reality, everything is much more complicated. Jeremy Corbyn continues to maneuver between two fires. On the one hand, the Labor Party is strongly influenced by supporters of the second referendum. For them, any possible compromise is possible only under the condition of a new vote. On the other hand, there is a real threat of losing one’s voter in the industrial north of England. In addition, many in the Labor Party are frankly worried that the new conservative party leader will simply break this agreement.
Even more difficult is the task for the leadership of the conservative party. Teresa May already now cannot avoid the European parliamentary elections, where the party risks getting 10-12%. This situation can easily be exacerbated if the Prime Minister becomes dependent on the decision of the Labor Party. There is a possibility that more Laborites of the week than conservatives will vote for the compromise. At one time, a similar situation developed in the early 30s, when Labor Prime Minister Ramsey MacDonald was forced to rely on the support of the conservative party.
According to the proposed plan, both parties agree on a customs union with the EU. Such a transitional period will have to last until the next parliamentary elections. After their completion, the winning party will have the opportunity to conduct their own version of Brackzit. In fact, the timing of a real exit from the EU will be shifted even further. It remains to be understood when this plan is proposed for submission to the House of Commons. The conservatives hope to do this by July 2019. Thus, despite the elections to the European Parliament, the new plan will allow the need for the British European MEPs to be reinstated to occupy their seats in Brussels.
by Paul Char