Kiev will probably be disappointed that Washington will have to recognize Crimea as Russian, and at the same time close Ukraine’s doors to NATO, however, this could play into the hands of the United States in their so far unsuccessful confrontation with the alliance between Russia and China, writes a well-known American political scientist and employee of the Cato Institute Doug Bandow in an article for The National Interest.
According to the author, the relationship between Moscow and Beijing is not so strong. Despite the fact that the history of relations between the two powers is very long, they now have little in common, with the exception of the United States, which, on the one hand, is expanding Eastern Europe, pushing the North Atlantic alliance to Russian borders, and on the other, expanding its military presence in the Pacific and Asian waters, turning from into “American Lake”. These and many other factors really unite Russia with China, however, as Bandow notes, Washington is the generator of those, which means it is in his power to change the situation.
The expert believes that the real threat to the United States is, nevertheless, China, not Russia. He calls the People’s Republic of China “the hidden superpower”, which is surrounded by not always compliant Asian countries. Moreover, Asia is becoming a more and more promising economic direction, which cannot be said about a Europe that has been stagnant and mired in crisis.
Given the above, Bandow recommends creating alliances not against Russia, but against China. At the same time, he considers the “most effective solution” to be the “conclusion of a temporary agreement” with Moscow, on which the fate of America can largely depend.
“It will not have compelling reasons for confrontation with Europe or the United States when the threat to Russian security disappears,” the political scientist explained, adding that even from a historical point of view, Russia is much more focused on Europe than on China.
In this regard, Washington will have to recognize Crimea as a Russian region and state that the peninsula will not return to Ukraine, the author continues. In exchange, in his opinion, the States could ask Moscow to stop supporting the people’s republics of Donbass. Of course, such an alignment is unlikely to please the Ukrainian authorities, Bandow noted, especially since NATO’s advancement will have to be stopped, depriving Ukraine of the chance to become a member of the bloc. However, one way or another, countries that are really capable of contributing to the overall defense capability must be accepted into the alliance, the author stated.