Can Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accept defeat?
That’s the question weighing on the mind of Turkey’s opposition a day after they celebrated snatching the country’s largest cities from Erdoğan’s party in municipal elections at the weekend.
Preliminary results show the opposition’s mayoral candidates winning comfortably in the capital Ankara and narrowly taking Istanbul, wrenching Turkey’s political and economic centers from Erdoğan’s grasp by tapping into widespread discontent fueled by an economic downturn.
The president, however, has not conceded defeat in either city and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) is disputing the results, citing alleged irregularities. Normally omnipresent, Erdoğan’s public absence since the early hours of Monday amid the wrangling over the results has unnerved his opponents, who now worry about his next move. The AKP says it wants all votes to be counted correctly and will accept the election board’s final results, which are due in about 10 days.
The opposition has not forgotten Erdoğan’s strong-arm response to previous election setbacks, such as in 2015 when he reran a general election after the AKP lost single-party rule, or his threats ahead of Sunday’s vote to dismiss elected officials he suspects of wrongdoing.
Perhaps with this in mind, the opposition’s joint Istanbul candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu — who declared himself mayor after the electoral authorities’ count showed him winning with a margin of less than 0.3 percentage points — on Monday called on Erdoğan to “gracefully” end the standoff in Turkey’s biggest city.
He also warned the Turkish leader that any attempt to undo the result would harm the nation’s standing in the world.
“I am calling on my president to show absolute care in this process, to resolve this situation for the benefit of our country and region,” an unshaven and sleep-deprived İmamoğlu told supporters. “One party wins, the other loses. This isn’t the end of the world.”
For the opposition, comprised of an unlikely alliance of secularists, nationalists and Kurds, the vote has been a huge morale boost, demonstrating that after 16 years in power, Erdoğan can be beat. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) last ran Istanbul and Ankara in the late 1970s.
The result is a significant blow for Erdoğan, who turned the vote into a referendum on his vastly empowered presidency and his stewardship of an economy that has slid into recession. Losing his hometown is a particularly bitter pill for the president, who frequently evokes the Turkish adage that “whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey.”
Home to one in five Turkish voters, the city is a bellwether for a party’s political fortunes. It is where Erdoğan, born in a working-class neighborhood in 1954, rose through the ranks of an Islamist party to become Istanbul mayor in 1994.
Sunday’s vote was the first since Erdoğan transformed his office last year into a supercharged executive branch with unchecked powers.
At 89 rallies in a 50-day campaign, he argued that the elections were far more significant than a simple vote for mayors and city councils but a “matter of survival,” citing terrorist threats and supposed attacks on Turkey’s currency.
But the bottom line mattered more to voters than Erdoğan’s existential warnings.
Turkey’s economy is in recession after a decade-long credit binge and a diplomatic dispute with the United States frightened investors. Turks are grappling with a 30 percent jump in food prices and an unemployment rate that has climbed above 13 percent.
And with the levers of state firmly in the president’s hands, voters found no one else to blame for their economic pain.
The loss of major municipalities adds to a litany of troubles Erdoğan faces at home and abroad, including the economic downturn and his diplomatic balancing act with the United States and Russia over Syria.
Fixing the debt-addled economy won’t be easy, with investors loath to put their money back into Turkey after recent market turmoil and Erdoğan’s campaign trail pledge that banks would be punished for the Turkish lira’s nosedive.
Erdoğan also faces a major conflict with the U.S. over his plans to buy a Russian air-defense system, which has pitted Turkey against its NATO allies. The Pentagon has reportedly stopped delivery of fighter jet equipment to Ankara to force it to cancel the deal.
In northern Syria, meanwhile, he has been negotiating a fragile ceasefire for a Turkey-backed rebel stronghold to stop Russian bombardment and threatened to launch an offensive against a U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish militia.
In an address to supporters early Monday, Erdoğan reiterated his vow to enter Syria to expel Kurdish militants Ankara considers terrorists for their links to insurgents in Turkey.
He also pledged to force the economy back to growth and to strengthen his presidency even further to remove whatever impediments to his rule remain.
Erdoğan pointed out that together with his ultranationalist allies, the AKP had won a majority of the nationwide popular vote despite losing several provinces. But he also expressed some contrition, promising to address the public’s discontent.
“We can’t blame this [result] on our people, we have to look at ourselves,” he said. “If we have shortcomings, we will fix these.”
Now, Erdoğan has four years to win over disillusioned voters before he faces re-election in 2023.
But even if the economy recovers quickly, healing the wounds left by a sweeping crackdown following a failed military coup in 2016 would require a greater shift. Tens of thousands of his opponents, including politicians and journalists, still languish in prison.
“The big question is whether Erdoğan significantly changes his ways or if he doubles down,” said Amanda Sloat, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
“It’s hard to think of historical examples where leaders who have become more authoritarian suddenly turn around and liberalize, but Erdoğan has proven himself to be a very clever, pragmatic politician,” she said. “It’s not impossible that he finds a way to turn this around.”