For some time, it was assumed that Yulia Tymoshenko would challenge Petro Poroshenko for the Ukrainian presidency in next month’s election. However, out of nowhere, Vladimir Zelensky has now emerged as the frontrunner.
For Ukrainians able to vote in next month’s presidential election, the choice is now pretty clear. There are three options: the incumbent oligarch anti-Russia hardliner, the femme fatale of Kiev’s political scene, or a comedian best known for playing a fictional president in a popular TV drama.
While his candidacy originally inspired much bemusement, nobody’s laughing now at Zelensky. Because the entertainer has surged into a nine-point polling lead with just six weeks left before the big day.
Right now, here’s the state of play: Zelensky 26.9 percent, Poroshenko 17.7 percent, and Yulia Tymoshenko 15.8 percent.
Asked why they favor the newcomer, 54 percent of his backers cite his status as a fresh face, who’s up against a number of figures who’ve been on the political scene for donkey’s years.
Ukraine’s political and financial elites are tightly knit. For instance, a decade ago, Poroshenko served as foreign minister in Tymoshenko’s cabinet. And, in 2011, when, subsequently ousted, President Viktor Yanukovich locked up Tymoshenko on dubious charges, Poroshenko was acting as his trade minister.
Kiev’s political merry-go-round might be cynical, but it’s rarely boring. And this is the reality of politics in the former USSR: the more competitive the contest, the more unstable the state.
Russia is a case in point, where the devastating ‘90s provided “interesting” bouts, but horrid economic conditions, leading to disillusionment with the concept of “liberal democracy” itself. This has inspired almost two decades of Putinist domination since the present helmsman turned the ship around.
In the Baltics, the norm is rule by stable coalitions. Most notably in Latvia, where the last three elections have seen multi-party rainbows of various nominal ideologies, formed to keep the most popular grouping out of office. This is because it argues for closer ties with Moscow.
Other nations in the post-Soviet sphere with relatively high living standards are outright authoritarian regimes: Belarus, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. These have all been ruled by the same figure, or family, since just after the Soviet collapse.
This means political junkies are left to get their kicks from the poorer relations: most notably the chaotic cousins of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. These countries are all united by rampant corruption and widespread poverty. And, of course, a desire to integrate with the European Union and the “US-led global order.” Among elites, at least.