Who’s going to make the announcement?
William Barr, the new Trump-appointed attorney general who took office in mid-February, is Mueller’s ultimate supervisor and is expected to have the responsibility of announcing the Russia probe is finished.
What exactly will Barr announce?
The attorney general is expected to simply state that the probe is done and Mueller has given him a report detailing the investigation. But don’t expect him to say anything about that report — yet. Instead, he’ll likely say that DOJ is now working on a summary of that report and perhaps will give an indication of when that summary might be done.
Under the DOJ regulations used to appoint Mueller — written during the Bill Clinton era — the special counsel must submit a confidential report to Barr explaining who’s been prosecuted and why, as well as who hasn’t been prosecuted and why. Barr then gets to decide how much of that material to make public, if any. He promised during his Senate confirmation hearing in January only to release a summary of the confidential report.
It also seems likely we’ll learn of these steps through formal letters to Congress, including the House and Senate Judiciary committees. There’s been no indication that Barr plans a news conference about all this, although he’ll eventually have to answer questions from reporters and lawmakers.
So, wait, this won’t be an announcement that the Mueller report is available for the public?
That’s the expectation, yes. Sorry if you were misled.
OK, then. The suspense is killing me. When will we get to see Mueller’s report?
It’s up to Barr, who is expected to say he needs a few more weeks to review what Mueller submitted. During that time, he’ll redact any classified information from the document, as well as information sourced from a grand jury, which is secret. He’ll also be working to summarize what could be a sizable document for public consumption. That will become the trimmed-down version of Mueller’s report that goes to Congress and is released to the public.
That said, this being Washington, D.C., there’s the possibility nuggets from the report could start leaking out while Barr prepares the summary and makes his redactions.
So what’s this report going to say when it finally does come out?
The answer to this question is something only Mueller, his team and perhaps a few top DOJ officials know at this point. Expectations among the public might be high that the document will be a tell-all page-turner that explains the ins and outs of what happened in the 2016 presidential campaign, how and why the Russians hacked Democratic email accounts and whether anyone in Trump’s orbit knew about this beforehand or facilitated the crimes.
Those expectations would probably be too high. Barr promised only that he’d dish out a summary of what Mueller tells him about who’s been prosecuted and who didn’t get prosecuted, with the added caveat that DOJ policy is not to air people’s dirty laundry if it didn’t lead to a criminal indictment.
Does the White House get to see it?
It seems likely that the White House will have a chance to review whatever summary Barr proposes sending to Congress.
If so, the White House lawyers will likely scour the document for information they believe should be withheld due to executive privilege, a right that presidents have long claimed to try and withhold certain information from the public. The president’s personal attorneys, including Rudy Giuliani, have also said they want to see the document to offer a chance to make corrections or include other information.
Trump himself would likely be entitled to see whatever is sent to the White House, but there are questions about whether it would be proper for his personal attorneys to get a copy before it is publicly released. Another factor to consider: as the proposed report is circulated more widely, the chances of a leak increase. Here’s another wrinkle: Trump has said his legal team is preparing its own counter report, which as of last December was already 87 pages long.
Is anyone else going to be indicted?
That’s another closely held secret. A wide range of people ensnared in the Russia probe remain on edge about their legal fate.
There’s the president’s oldest son, Donald Trump Jr., who attended a Trump Tower meeting with Russians promising him “dirt” on Hillary Clinton. Or the conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi, who exchanged multiple emails with indicted Trump associate Roger Stone about WikiLeaks, the activist group that dumped Clinton campaign emails in 2016.
Adding to the tension: There are dozens of sealed indictments that have been filed in D.C. federal court over the two years Mueller’s been at work. These could all be unrelated to the Russia probe. But until Barr or Mueller gives an all-clear — something that actually may never come — Trumpworld can’t fully exhale.
Mueller’s office has also handed off leads to federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, who are investigating Trump’s business dealings, campaign and inauguration fundraising.
Additionally, several spin-off or related investigations remain publicly unresolved, including probes into the actions of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, an inquiry into alleged false statements by fired FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe and an investigation of Ukraine-related work conducted by former Obama White House counsel Greg Craig.
What happens to the active Mueller cases that haven’t concluded yet?
They will continue.
In recent weeks, Mueller’s team has been bringing in outside federal prosecutors to work on the cases that will linger beyond the special counsel’s tenure. The move allows Mueller to hand off unfinished business more easily once he closes up shop.
That’s been the case with Stone’s prosecution. The longtime Trump associate’s trial is scheduled to start Nov. 5 in D.C. on charges of lying to Congress and obstructing lawmakers’ Russia probe. All along, a pair of assistant U.S. attorneys from the D.C. office have handled key parts of the Stone case, including many of the arguments during preliminary hearings.
Other federal prosecutors are also lined up to take over two other Mueller cases: the indictment of an online Russian “troll farm” that allegedly sowed discontent in 2016, and a case charging Russian intelligence officers with hacking Democratic Party emails that same year.
None of the 12 alleged hackers have been taken into custody. But a St. Petersburg, Russia-based company charged in the trolling case — Concord Management and Consulting — has hired American lawyers and is demanding a trial. Career national security prosecutors appear prepared to handle that if it happens.
When does impeachment start?
Hold on, there — we’re a few steps away from that.
First, Mueller’s findings will need to make their way to Capitol Hill. If the summary report doesn’t include granular details about the president’s actions, expect a protracted legal battle between Democrats and DOJ over gaining access to Mueller’s underlying investigative documents.
Second, Democrats will need to be almost uniformly convinced that Mueller has found evidence of “high crimes and misdemeanors” — the vague standard the Constitution says can merit a president’s removal from office.
So far, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she is setting the bar high for that standard. She’s warned that any attempt to remove Trump that didn’t include enough GOP support to succeed could backfire on Democrats. That’s the last thing Democratic Party leaders want going into the 2020 election.
Will Mueller ever speak?
It’s certainly possible.
The famously tight-lipped special counsel hasn’t uttered a single public word about his investigation over his two years on the job. But House Democrats say they will call Mueller in to testify publicly if they don’t get his report in its entirety.
Still, current and former DOJ officials, legal experts and lawmakers from both parties have been lowering expectations that the by-the-book Mueller would break script and provide much more than what has already been said in public about his investigation.
