The Brexit talks remain locked solid, but Brussels expects London to make a move — potentially in the next week and with a new text laying out changes to the controversial Northern Ireland backstop.
For all the spin from U.K. ministers that this week’s negotiations are inching toward changes to the Brexit deal, the view from Brussels is far more pessimistic. They see no meaningful progress in recent days — but with a delay to Brexit day looking increasingly likely they feel the pressure is now on the U.K. to shift its position.
Following the historic defeat in January for the Brexit deal negotiated between Theresa May’s government and Brussels, the prime minister has doubled down on her strategy of trying to swing the votes of Brexiteers. Her Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has been leading talks this week with EU negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels, in which he has continued to seek a time limit or unilateral exit mechanism from the backstop (that’s the mechanism that the EU insists must be in place to prevent the need for a hard border in Northern Ireland).
The answer from Brussels is the same as it has been for months, five EU diplomats involved in the negotiations told POLITICO on condition of anonymity. “Not much is moving, actually, demands are always the same,” said one.
“The U.K side keeps on insisting on the same things, time limit and unilateral exit,” said another, “we keep on explaining why this can’t happen.”
Weakened negotiating hand
But Brussels believes that its message that the 585-page Withdrawal Agreement cannot be reopened is getting through. “In bilateral talks they [the British] have indicated to accept that,” said a third diplomat.
“In meetings with Barnier, Cox gave the impression that he’s about to drop the request to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement, although he didn’t do it explicitly yet, the message is that it seems they are moving,” said a fourth, a senior diplomat who on Friday morning took part in an informal meeting of EU27 ambassadors with Barnier and his deputy Sabine Weyand. But the first diplomat added that the realization on London’s part, if it is forthcoming, is “hardly a real progress, we have been saying for weeks that it’s not possible.”
Brexiteers in London say the real reason Brussels isn’t budging is because May this week gave in to demands from some of her ministers to concede a mechanism for MPs to engineer a delay to Brexit.
Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab told the BBC’s Today program Friday that allowing for a delay weakens the U.K.’s hand in the talks. “I think all of our problems get more difficult, so I’m strongly against any delay, and it signals to the EU that their intransigence pays off and that’s the wrong message for the U.K. to be sending to Brussels at this time,” Raab said.
Whether the prospect of a delay has changed the EU’s calculus or not, one diplomat said they expect that the lack of movement this week means the U.K. would come with a new proposal in next week’s talks. “The U.K has promised to submit proposals in writing next week,” said a second senior diplomat, although others are skeptical such a text will materialize.
Asked in the House of Commons on Thursday whether the government has yet put to the EU any proposed wording reflecting changes to the backstop that it is seeking, Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay said: “In terms of the specific wording, these are obviously live discussions and need to be given the space to be conducted.”
He added: “We have been very clear with the European Union that the effects of these changes have to be legally binding … that is the crux of the issue that we are discussing with the European Union.”
In an interview with Welt, Barnier said that an “interpretive document” could be used to allay British fears about the backstop.
It may take similar form to the January letter from European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk reassuring the British people that they intend for the backstop to be temporary.
“If this document were combined with a written commitment from the British, then obviously it would have a much greater power,” he said.
Technical delay
Separately, it has emerged that May herself raised the prospect of a short delay in her meeting with European Council Donald Tusk at a summit in Egypt Monday.
“She talked about an extension, although only short and technical, basically only in case the Commons on March 12 approve the deal but need more time for ratification,” said the first senior diplomat.
Such a technical extension to get a deal through is far less controversial than a delay forced on her in the event her deal fails to pass, but it was a first for her: May “made it clear in Sharm [el-Sheikh, Egypt] that her clear preference was no extension at all. But for the first time she opened up for a possible short, technical extension,” said an EU official.
On the question of a longer delay to avoid a damaging no-deal Brexit, the EU27 remain open to a request if needed, but the line remains that the delay must have a purpose. “If the U.K. were to decide to hold a second referendum and request an extension of Article 50 to carry out this process, we would respond favorably,” Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn told POLITICO, but only “provided that such a solution would be limited in time, and justified by a clear perspective and a realistic assurance that a rules-based process will be sought.”
Ekaterina Zaharieva, Bulgaria’s minister of foreign affairs, said: “We are open to an extension of Article 50 but this extension should be with a clear and firm aim — an orderly Brexit to be achieved.”