The Munich Security Conference — a forum conceived during the Cold War to discuss security threats and challenges — has never been an event for the faint of heart. Even so, the mood at this year’s gathering, the 55th, would best be described as funereal.
Long a showcase for the solidity of the post-war Western alliance and America’s enduring commitment to European security, this year’s conference has looked more like a transatlantic reality show.
“People are not talking to each other, nor at each other, they are talking through each other,” said Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister who has been attending the conference for more than 20 years.
It’s no secret Europeans and Americans (i.e. the Trump administration) have been at odds over a laundry list of issues including the Iranian nuclear deal, climate policy, trade and commitment to NATO. Yet the interaction between the two sides in Munich — which bordered on the caustic, both in public and behind the scenes — left some participants warning that the estrangement threatens to hobble the transatlantic security alliance at a time of growing instability.
James Stavridis, a retired American admiral who served as NATO’s supreme allied commander until 2013, said the alliance’s paralysis was most apparent where it can least afford it: hybrid warfare, an area that all sides agree poses a severe threat to the stability of democratic systems. (Hybrid warfare includes cyberattacks and disinformation, tactics Western capitals suspect Russia of employing during the 2016 U.S presidential election and ahead of the Brexit vote.)
“On cybersecurity, the level of threat and preparedness may be most out of balance,” he said.
Merkel vs. Pence
A reminder of just how wide the transatlantic chasm has become came Saturday, traditionally the high point of the conference, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence addressed the audience in succession.
Merkel, speaking first, presented a vigorous defense of her approach to foreign policy, in particular her commitment to multilateralism, the rules-based order and to diplomacy. She also made clear there is no question of Europe abandoning the Iran deal, as Pence has demanded.
But what was most notable about the speech is that the chancellor abandoned her usual caution to speak in frank terms about tensions with the U.S.
“If we’re serious about the transatlantic partnership, it’s not very easy for me as German chancellor to read … that the American Department of Commerce apparently considers German and European cars to be a threat to the national security of the United States of America,” Merkel said.
As Ivanka Trump looked on from the audience, the German leader added: “Look, we’re proud of our cars and we should be allowed to be. And these cars are built in the U.S. The biggest BMW factory is in South Carolina, not in Bavaria.”
Merkel, who also offered a detailed defense of Germany’s contributions to the NATO alliance, received a standing ovation at the end of the address, which had the tone of a valedictory speech.
To the predominately European crowd, which like the chancellor is deeply skeptical of Donald Trump’s aggressive approach to foreign policy, Merkel’s words acted like a salve, with some listeners declaring it the best speech she’d ever deliver.
The afterglow didn’t last long.
“The truth is, many of our NATO allies still need to do more,” Pence told the crowd, checking through a list of American grievances with its partners, even as he extolled the alliance.
“We will not stand idly by while NATO allies purchase weapons from our adversaries,” he said, in an apparent reference to Turkey’s plan to buy the Russian S-400 missile defense system.
“We cannot ensure the defense of the West if our allies grow dependent on the East.”
Iran in focus
Pence struck a dark tone, saying Iran’s rhetoric about Israel carried echoes from the Holocaust and recounting his visit to Auschwitz on Friday.
“When authoritarian regimes breathe out vile anti-Semitic hatred and threats of violence, we must take them at their word,” Pence said, in a thinly veiled criticism of Europe for continuing to engage with Iran, despite U.S. sanctions.
Pence’s speech, which he closed with “God Bless the United States of America,” jarred the audience.
“It sounded more like he was speaking to a Trump rally than to transatlanticists in Europe,” said Amanda Sloat, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank.
Ahead of the conference, Europeans were hopeful that with the U.S. sending its largest delegation ever, the gathering could mark a turning point. Yet even the large congressional contingent, including many Democrats, couldn’t mask the fact that U.S. foreign policy remains firmly in Trump’s hands.
If this year’s theme — “The Great Puzzle: Who will pick up the pieces?” — was an attempt by the organizers to encourage joint purpose, it fell flat.
“The idea that it’s a call for action — to do what exactly?” Palacio asked. “We don’t know what to do.”