When Theresa May’s Brexit deal was defeated by a record margin of 230 House of Commons votes in January, some commentators predicted that it little to no chance of ever getting through the UK parliament.
However, there is a growing belief among Conservative MPs that the prime minister’s deal — probably with a few tweaks granted by the European Union — will eventually pass before the end of March.
“The atmosphere has calmed. A growing number of colleagues have turned around in recent days and told me: ‘Do you know what, I think this deal is going to go through,” said one Tory MP who sits on the Brexit Delivery Group (BDG) of Conservative MPs.
“There doesn’t seem to be the same heat in parliament as there was before Christmas.”
The BDG, which comprises around 50 Tory MPs, is made up of Remain and Leave supporters, and is united in its efforts to try and gather party support for a “negotiated settlement” — in other words, a deal closely resembling the prime minister’s existing one.
Members of this group expect growing numbers of Conservative MPs to ultimately back the prime minister’s deal in the coming weeks.
Why? Because if they don’t back the deal, then many Conservative MPs now realise that they could end up with either a long Brexit delay, a damaging no-deal Brexit, or even no Brexit at all.
“The dynamics among the the ERG [pro-Brexit European Research Group of Conservative MPs] is changing,” one moderate Conservative MP told Business Insider.
“The ERG are splintering and lots of them are coming around to the deal through gritted teeth.”
Conversely, the greater the chances of a softer Brexit become, the more likely Conservative MPs believe that May’s original deal will pass. The Labour Party has offered to back May if she pivots to a softer exit from the EU.
While most Conservative MPs oppose leaving the EU without a deal, for a committed bloc of pro-Brexit Conservative MPs, a no-deal exit is the only outcome that can prevent the party splitting.
For others though, the idea that a no-deal exit would unite the party is ludicrous.
“The ironic thing is that it wouldn’t save the party, it’d tear us in two. And we’d get absolutely thrashed at the next election because it would f*** the economy,” one prominent Conservative backbencher told Business Insider.
However, despite the fears of a no-deal outcome, four factors suggest that a no-deal Brexit will not be allowed to happen.
Firstly, simple parliamentary arithmetic: There are at most around 75 MPs from a total of 650 who would be happy for the UK to leave the EU without a deal next month. The remainder are opposed to the idea, and there is a working majority in parliament that would seek to prevent such an outcome.
Secondly, Olly Robbins — the civil servant who is May’s closest Brexit adviser — was overheard in a Brussels bar this week saying he believed MPs would have to choose between the prime minister’s plan and a potentially long Article 50 extension.
Thirdly, there is a good chance a backbench plot to take no-deal off the table will succeed at the end of this month.
The “Cooper amendment” — an earlier form of which was only narrowly defeated in January — seeks to force the prime minister to put the option of delaying Brexit before the House of Commons in order to prevent the immediate threat of a no-deal Brexit. With just weeks to go until the Article 50 process comes to an end, the chances of the amendment tabled by Labour MP Yvette Cooper passing look high.
Finally, ministers could resign in order to prevent no-deal, some of them possibly giving up the government whip to vote for the Cooper amendment on February 27. Senior Tory MP Dominic Grieve said this week that up to a dozen could be prepared to do so, including several secretaries of state. May would need to everything in her power to avoid that happening.
If a no-deal is taken off the table, it forces Conservative MPs to confront an altogether different choice to the one they are contemplating now. Not between a deal and no deal, but between a deal and an Article 50 extension of several months.
The truth is that there is a real appetite among most Conservative MPs to get Brexit over with, not least because of fear of a backlash from their constituents. They fear it could ultimately lead to the collapse of Brexit altogether.