By Tom McTague
Jeremy Corbyn is winning — but could yet lose Britain’s culture war.
Faced with an imploding government led by Theresa May, the U.K. Labour leader has two primary goals: Force a general election to win power, and avoid being cast as the leader of those who wish to remain in the European Union.
Those closest to him fear he is now on course for one, but cannot have both. Some of the most senior officials in No. 10 Downing Street have reached the same conclusion.
While maintaining an ambiguous position on Brexit has thus far allowed the Labour leader to focus his political narrative on austerity rather than choosing between backing a second referendum or supporting the U.K.’s exit from the EU come what may, an election triggered by Britain’s inability to agree a way forward on Brexit would inevitably force the party to take a clear stance, those close to Corbyn privately admit.
Growing polarization in the country — where voters are now more likely to identify themselves as Leave or Remain rather than Tory or Labour — is further undermining Corbyn’s central electoral strategy of offering a platform based on traditional tax-and-spend policies.
Corbyn’s dilemma goes to the heart of the rolling political crisis gripping Westminster. With more than 100 Tory MPs lined up against the prime minister’s proposed EU Withdrawal Agreement, the route to a parliamentary majority for a negotiated exit is now all but impassable without the Labour leader’s support. According to one senior official familiar with the prime minister’s strategy, May has concluded that he has no incentive to give it.
Corbyn’s stance locks the British prime minister into a precarious position, unable to push a Brexit deal through the House of Commons, at risk of alienating both sides of her party and teetering on the edge of crashing out of the EU with no deal at all.
Some in Downing Street have concluded that a handful of Labour MPs could compromise with the government to achieve the type of softer Brexit they seek. But the majority see no reason why they are not best served by sticking with the party leader’s attempt to force a general election, offering them the chance to dictate the terms of Britain’s withdrawal — or stop Brexit altogether. With so many of his party aligned in their desire for an election, Corbyn has zero incentive to bail the government out and back some kind of compromise Brexit deal, those close to him say.
Aides close to May have privately concluded that given the impasse, underlined by Corbyn’s stance, a general election is now all but inevitable. Unless something happens to “shakes things up,” changing the calculations of those hard-line Euroskeptics and Democratic Unionist MPs who prop up May’s government and would rather leave the EU without a deal than back the prime minister.
The working assumption of some senior U.K. aides now is that an election may be impossible to avoid given the parliamentary arithmetic, in which there is no majority for any form of Brexit or a second referendum. This would come about once parliament had legislated for an extension to Article 50, perhaps by as much as nine months, while refusing to move on the terms of May’s deal.
Trouble for May, trouble for Corbyn
An election could force May to resign, paving the way for a new Conservative Party leader, who — almost all MPs and officials believe — would come from the right of the party in order to win a ballot of Conservative Party members, who support a no-deal exit from the EU.
The irony for Labour, however, is that if it successfully forces a general election, Corbyn will immediately have to confront the decision he has taken every opportunity to avoid to date: Whether to endorse a second referendum with an option to remain in the EU. “Yes, we will have to make a choice at that point,” one senior official admitted.
To reject the prospect of a second referendum risks splitting the party, potentially creating space for a new national party to act as a vehicle for disillusioned Remain voters and MPs from across the House of Commons. Such a party, which has long been speculated about, would pose a danger to the coalition of voters that allowed Corbyn to strip May of the Conservative Party majority in 2017, potentially peeling off largely urban, middle-class Remain voters.
Those close to the Labour leader acknowledge the danger of an “alliance” movement that could pull together disparate groups in parliament, including the Scottish National Party; Remain-supporting Conservative MPs such as Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve; and the 71 Labour MPs who have signed a letter in support of a “People’s Vote.”
However, should Corbyn guarantee a second referendum, those around the Labour leader fear the party would be vulnerable in vast swathes of its English heartlands, which voted Leave in 2016.
Under Corbyn’s leadership, the party has sought to tread a fine line between opposition to the government’s negotiated exit from the EU and an in-principle support for delivering the result of the 2016 referendum.
Corbyn’s aides believe that allowing Brexit to become the dividing line in British politics undermines what they see as their core offer to voters: economic populism. To Corbyn and his chief adviser Seumas Milne, culture-based arguments about Brexit are a distraction from the core economic divide in the country, undermining their offer of anti-austerity and redistribution of wealth from the “few” to the “many,” which they believe is potent and worked so well in 2017.
Addressing supporters in the marginal constituency of Hastings on the south coast after May had reached out to him to open negotiations, Corbyn accused the Tories of using Brexit to divide ordinary workers.
“I believe that the real divide in our country is not between Leave and Remain,” he said. “It’s between the many who do the work, create the wealth and pay their taxes, work in our society, deliver for the rest of us — and those others, those few who set the rules, reap the rewards and dodge their taxes.”
He added: “We are in this position because the Conservatives and other parties have deliberately chosen to deepen divisions, setting those who voted Leave against those who voted Remain. Labour is the only party that has consistently sought to bring people together and find a way through that respects people’s concerns, whichever way they voted in the referendum.”
An early general election, however, also causes equally grave dilemmas for the Conservative Party.
Former Universities Minister Sam Gyimah, who resigned from government in opposition to May’s deal, said the party would also be split over its position. “If an election were to happen, it would be because we tripped into it, rather than it being actively sought by the government,” he said. “The Conservative Party cannot actively seek an election because its Brexit position is not settled. May would only want her deal, but the members hate it. If you go with no deal [as your Brexit policy], lots of Tories would refuse to stand.”