The US’ exit from Syria might have been prompted by purely financial factors, Syrian analysts told Sputnik, explaining how the withdrawal will affect Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Washington’s European allies who continue to maintain a limited military presence on the ground in the Arab Republic.
Donald Trump’s announced pull-out of American troops from Syria caught many by surprise, although the US president repeatedly vowed to withdraw military forces at some point.
However, according to Kadi, “unless Trump promised to surrender his positions to Turkish troops, his withdrawal from Syria will leave Turkey in a position of disadvantage in Idlib”.Commenting on Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed scepticism over the pull-out plan, referring to Washington’s repeated vows to leave Afghanistan.
According to Assad, “it also goes without saying that Trump’s role as president is to keep his Empire’s economy above water”.
“Therefore, although he may remove troops out of Afghanistan, specially that Pakistan had recently cooled off her military and intelligence cooperation, he will not under any circumstance withdraw completely form the Arab Middle East because Iran is so squarely in the US military sites and remains the most coveted target of Empire”.
While the US military contingent is leaving the Syrian Arab Republic within the next 100 days, French President Emmanuel Macron has promised that “France will remain engaged in the Levant region”.
Reportedly, Paris has also pledged to support Kurdish militia in northern Syria amid the American withdrawal.”France is a nuclear power and a permanent member of the UNSC, but it does not any longer have the geopolitical and military clout it thinks it has. If France decides to replace America in Syria, how would it imagine that it can be capable of success where America failed?” he asked rhetorically.
According to the political analyst, “Russia is the only power that has the respect and trust of all relevant parties” to “sponsor fair and proper mediations”.
How the US Withdrawal From Syria May Affect Regional Players
So, how might the US pull-out affect America’s regional allies — Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey?
“I cannot see how the pull-out can affect Saudi Arabia as such,” Kadi said, adding that Riyadh is currently preoccupied with its domestic affairs and the media fuss over the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
As for Israel, the analyst elaborated that “prior to Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria, [his] guess was that America was going to use its presence on Syrian soil as a bargaining chip to guarantee Israel a trade-off that eventually guarantees a mutual and synchronised American/Iranian withdrawal”.
“If Trump is true to his word, this is now an unlikely scenario,” Kadi suggested. “A unilateral American pull-out can weaken Israel’s position and leverage in negotiating an Iranian withdrawal. However, this will further bolster Russia’s position as the only power that can broker future peace talks.”
Assad holds a different stance. According to him, “the Israelis are in a win-win situation because they can continue to sow instability and instigate violence both in Iran and in Syria”.
“Trumps’ move, although may be good for the Syrians, will definitely embolden both Israel and Turkey, each for opposing reasons,” he suggested. “It will free Turkey’s hands to deal with the Kurdish problem, and will give the Israelis, British and the French the justification to continue the pursuit of a belligerent policy toward Syria using the Syrian Kurds as a ruse”.