It seems that UK Prime Minister Theresa May may not leave Brussels empty handed, however the assurances she secured from the EU-27 are far more limited than what the UK Prime Minister was looking for, as the bloc’s leaders toughened their stance.
The European Commission is now stepping up its no-deal scenario preparedness, announcing that another critical batch of documents will be released on 19 December.
The EU-27 leaders along with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier will now focus on preparations for the more unwelcome scenarios, after the EU-27 renounced May’s pleas for additional “legally binding assurances” on the most difficult part of the agreement, which would allow for an easier sell in the House of Commons, the so-called backstop of the Irish border.
While May would not be so naive to expect a “breakthrough” as she admitted during her early afternoon doorstep at the Europa building in Brussels, she was expecting a helping hand. “We are ready to help,” offered her Luxembourg counterpart Xavier Bettel in front of the international press as she stepped inside the European Council.
Instead, by the end of the discussions, the EU-27 leaders hardened their stance both in oral, during the press conference after Thursday’s dinner discussions, as well as in the final summit conclusions.
This happened, as the leaders worked to redraft what diplomats in the working groups had previously finalised, a move that an EU official familiar with the choreography earlier said would only make things harder for May.
This reality is illustrated by reviewing the various leaked drafts of the summit conclusions. Earlier versions included the EU-27’s will to “examine whether any further assurance can be provided,” on the Irish backstop. Though this didn’t make it to the final version, and leaders instead signalled a fast-tracked trade deal in the future relationship.
The change of stance also echoed in leaders’ statements. Juncker said that May has led “a courageous fight but unfortunately we are not seeing the results”. The European Commission president told reporters late at night that May was asked to bring back ideas to fix the problem, but this didn’t happen.
Five small paragraphs that barely made it to one page, but even if size doesn’t always matter in these highly political texts, May was left with what Barnier has been reiterating since the 585-page Withdrawal Agreement was finalised in November.
According to people familiar with the developments during Thursday night, German Chancellor Angela Merkel asked May over and over again to make it clear to the EU leaders what it is that she was asking from them.
May’s failure to make leaders understand what exactly she thinks would or could work, was also clearly stated by Juncker during the final press conference: “On Brexit we expect the UK to provide clarity on intentions and next steps; ready for clarifications but no renegotiation,” said Juncker.
No. Leaders have in the background assured the British premier another round of talks is possible if the UK’s intentions become more clear.
However, the initial plan of offering legal assurances and taking it from there, to another Summit in January, was not agreed at the last rendezvous of the leaders for 2018. Now it is time for May to go back to London and fight to get the deal through the House of Commons.