With less than 3 weeks to the midterm elections, there are a slew of new polls, and most show Democrats doing VERY well in the House, but slipping in the Senate.
And while I want Democrats to win both, at the very least we have to win the House, in order to stop Trump from legislating, and to give Democrats subpoena power. But the Senate is still a concern, as they confirm executive branch appointments and judges, so it still matters how much of a margin Republicans have in the Senate, even were they to hold on to their majority.
And legislatively, there’s some news. In the last day, GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell has said he wants to try to repeal Obamacare again, and cut Medicare and Social Security (incredibly, to pay for the failed Republican tax cuts, which now have cost $2.5 trillion), but he’s only going to move ahead depending how Republicans do in the election. So we must win in order to stop McConnell from implementing the Trump agenda.
GENERIC BALLOT
All recent polls show the public choosing Democrats over Republicans, generically, to run Congress. The numbers vary from Democrats +1 (which is Rasmussen, a Republican pollster that nobody respects) to Dems +13. The real range in trusted polls is Dems +5 to Dems +13. It’s generally accepted that Dems want to be at least +7 to +8 to take back the House. So we’re right in that range. But as always, it’s going to depend on turnout. And interesting poll earlier this week showed that with high turnout, Dems win the House. But with low turnout, Republicans wins the House by ONE SEAT. That’s how important turnout is.