The importance of the recent Bavarian state’s election goes beyond Germany. The main takeaway is a historic low turnout for CSU that has been interpreted as a failure. But is it really?
Since the CDU shifted its agenda to the left, its sister party CSU has been the only tolerated conservative force on the German political scene. And unlike CDU, it is critical towards the so-called ‘green consensus’, which is why CSU takes hits from all sides – the media, ‘Kulturschaffenden’ and the rest of the political scene including Merkel’s party.
It seems like CSU was meant to fail, enough to be maneuvered into a shotgun wedding with the Greens, or it was an acceptable collateral damage at least. Well, this plan backfired, and Bavaria still has a chance to remain a stronghold of the moderate Right, as CSU can find a coalition partner in Free Voters and liberal FDP. Voters didn’t punish CSU because it went too far to the right. Actually, the 11 percent that the CSU is missing compared to the last elections spilled over to AfD, a party which hadn’t run for Parliament previously. By the way, 11 percent for AfD in Bavaria is much less than they usually gain in other parts of Germany.
So, while CSU’s fall has been interpreted as a failure, worse results of the CDU in all the federal states and at a national level are usually accepted as fact. Even though you would have to decrease recent CSU results by 3 or 4 percent to get national support for CDU. And that’s where the drama begins – Merkel’s party is slowly dropping down to 25 – 20 percent and at the same time it’s losing its natural coalition partner. Soon there may be a previously unthinkable coalition between the Blacks with the Greens on a national level, only to prevent the so-called radicals from the AfD from rising to power.