Amid the angular architecture of Salzburg’s Mozarteum University, the Prime Minister and other EU leaders will yet again try to find a way of unblocking the frustratingly stalled talks. With caution, diplomats predict trials will be overcome in the manner of The Magic Flute rather than a descent into hell recalling the finale of Don Giovanni.
Whitehall insiders anticipate the more relaxed atmosphere of an informal heads of government meeting, away from the usual claustrophobic environment of the EU’s ridiculous egg-shaped summit centre in Brussels, will soothe heads and help encourage a problem-solving approach. They have also been heartened by the softer notes being struck by senior EU figures over the past fortnight.
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier suggested a deal might be “possible” within six to eight weeks and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for once avoided any sneering jibes about Brexit in his annual state-of-the-union address to the European Parliament. The muted tones are being viewed as a sign that the EU negotiators, under pressure from key leaders of member nations, are ready to engage on the details of the Prime Minister’s Brexit offer.
Angela Merkel is understood to be pressing for a slimmed-down deal that puts off some of the knottier problems such as the dispute over the future of the Irish border. The German Chancellor, whose own domestic position has become as precarious as Mrs May’s, wants Brexit dealt with so the EU can focus on the other threats to the bloc’s survival as Eurosceptic voices from Italy, Hungary and other nations get louder. Mrs Merkel’s influence is expected to be crucial to proceedings in Salzburg.
Mrs May’s team are preparing for her trip to Austria relieved that plotting to oust her among a section of her Eurosceptic critics is failing to gain traction. While the malcontents are confident of being able to call upon the 48 backbench signatures needed to trigger a motion of no-confidence in their leader, they are not thought likely to be able to rally the 158 MPs needed to win such a vote.
Senior Tory Brexiteers including Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis distanced themselves from mutinous chatter at a meeting of members of the European Research Group (ERG) in Parliament’s Thatcher Room on Tuesday evening. Privately, leading figures in the group are irritated that their drive to try to change the Prime Minister’s Brexit negotiating stance has been overshadowed by the leadership scheming.
Allies of Mrs May have been ridiculing the plotters in recent days. One described them as “the usual mad bunch” while another suggested some MPs in the Thatcher Room had been “well-oiled”.
In a sign of shifting alliances in the parliamentary party, about 80 MPs packed a meeting of the Tory Reform Group (TRG), the main organisation for the moderate “One Nation” wing of the party.
Both Leave and Remain backing MPs were represented at the gathering, which heard an appeal from former Cabinet minister Nicky Morgan of the need to “stand up against the louder voices” from the hardline Brexiteer camp. A schism among Tory MPs between the ERG and the TRG threatens to become the defining divide in the battle for the future of the party.
Although the immediate threat to the Prime Minister’s position has subsided in recent days, the next round of Brussels negotiations are bound to bring more turbulence.
The EU, an institution built on deal-making and compromise, will expect more concessions from her Government in return for any movement in its stance. That can only embolden her Eurosceptic critics again. “She cannot concede any more. Chequers has to be the end,” said one ERG insider.
Mrs May looks to be heading towards a diplomatic breakthrough at the Mozarteum this week. Yet she will not be expecting to hear any harmony from the backbench Tory chorus any time soon.
Lib Dems head to Brighton for their annual conference this weekend with many wondering whether their party’s days are numbered. Talk about the formation of a new centre party is growing at Westminster once again. Those involved in the plotting expect the Lib Dems to be absorbed into whatever new force emerges.
Gossip about a new party has been circulating with little sign of action ever since Jeremy Corbyn and his hard-Left mob seized control of the Labour Party. But the recent push by Left-wing activists to deselect moderate MPs is forcing some to feel their only choices are to split away or sit around waiting to be kicked out. A few pro-Brussels Tories are also tempted by the idea of joining a new centrist, anti-Brexit party. Earlier this week, sources in their number suggested around 15 MPs could leave if Boris Johnson ever becomes leader. Disaffected Tory and Labour MPs were understood to have held discreet talks this week.
Sir Vince is expected to encourage the new party plotters during his visit to the Sussex coast this week. The Lib Dem leader, who has signalled that he will retire before the 2022 date set for the next general election, has given his backing to a move to allow his successor to be a figure from outside Parliament, partly chosen by “supporters” who are not Lib Dem members. His allies say the hope is that a new movement in the mould of French President Macron’s En Marche party will emerge attracting defectors from the other parties.
Sir Vince’s cunning plan has one obvious flaw in the lack of any charismatic figure to take the leadership role. Supporters of the idea might also be advised to take a closer look at how their hero President Macron has, after 16 months in office, become the most unpopular inhabitant of the Elysee Palace in living memory. His centrist all things to all people gloss had faded quickly.
Centre party plotters need to stop dreaming that the electorate is crying out for some moderate crusade. They might be better off spending their time by the seaside talking about why their brand of politics has been so roundly rejected by the electorate.