The two Koreas are moving towards co-existence in a “permanent peace regime” and not reunification, even if North Korea were to fulfil its promise to fully denuclearise, experts told a policy forum here on Thursday (Sept 13).
One reason for this, said Dr Choi Kang of South Korea’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies, is the high socioeconomic cost to Seoul, which would have to shoulder the hefty bill for any reunification.
“Young people in South Korea today don’t want to talk about reunification, they don’t feel the same brotherhood or identity that those in the 50s and 60s do,” he told a session about North Korea at the Asia-Euro Policy Forum, which this year was themed Responding To Crises In East Asia.
“We have about 30,000 North Korea defectors, and the thinking is getting stronger that these defectors are stealing their jobs.”
His remarks came as President Moon Jae-in is set to make a three-day visit to Pyongyang next week for his third summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
The two leaders, who aspire to a declaration to end the 1950-53 Korean War, have rarely mentioned reunification, if at all, though the two countries have fielded unified Korean teams at sports meets.
South Korea also has a Ministry of Unification, whose predecessor was formed in 1969, which is aimed at promoting Korean reunification.
While their first meeting in April lifted Mr Moon’s approval ratings to a peak of 83 per cent, the President’s support has crashed to its lowest level of about 49 per cent, recent opinion polls in South Korea have said.
The reason for this is largely economic: Seoul in July (2018) reported its weakest jobs data in over eight years, with the economy adding just 5,000 jobs, the smallest gain since January 2010, while small-and-medium enterprises struggle with labour costs because of a rising minimum wage.
The panellists also said that a united Korea would be unlikely given their vastly different political ideologies, with security guarantees having been made to Mr Kim’s regime. And Pyongyang is unlikely to drastically shift away from its communist model, they added.
Dr Narushige Michishita of Japan’s National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies told the panel that keeping the two Koreas divided – instead than unifying them – would be a better idea.
If and when the crippling sanctions against the North are eased or lifted, the South can tap into the abundant natural resources and rich labour pool of its erstwhile-estranged northern neighbour, he said.
The North, meanwhile, can benefit from South Korean capital and technology.
“South Korea poses an existential threat to North Korea, because it is the only country with the ability and potential willingness to absorb the North,” he said. “But if this division can be institutionalised, then the North can feel much more secure, which means there is a greater chance of them making robust, meaningful socioeconomic and political reforms.”