U.S. sanctions against Turkey for its continued detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson threaten Turkey’s stability and may push the country to make up with Europe, Carnegie Europe senior fellow Judy Dempsey wrote .
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, due to visit Germany in September, “may be forced to take a hard look at his political, social, and economic policies. As it is, the economy is so dependent on Europe, and on Germany in particular,” she wrote.
“Perhaps the American sanctions could provide the Europeans with a chance, over time, to get Turkey back on the European track based on the rule of law, an independent judiciary, and a free and flourishing media. But Erdoğan has to make the first move and weigh up the cost.”
Germany needs Turkey’s co-operation over refugee and migration issues, Dempsey said, and it has been conducting back-room diplomacy rather than openly sanctioning the country despite its human rights violations.
Hence, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will likely make an effort to keep Turkey stable in the face of Trump’s wrath, Dempsey said.