Last week, during another aggravation of anti-Russian hysteria in the context of the Helsinki summit, Western news agencies reported a surprising event: American oil companies are trying to block new packages of anti-Russian sanctions. For obvious reasons, none of the American oil giants confirmed this information officially, but it is unlikely that such media, as specializing in American politics The Hill and Reuters, grossly made a mistake in their assessments. The largest US oil companies, most likely, are really trying to limit the anti-Russian sanctions policy based on their own interests, although at first glance it may seem that it can be beneficial for them to remove Russian competitors from the world oil market.
Reality is, as is often the case, more difficult than simple schemes based on the concept of total competition. The fact is that American oil companies are involved in Russian oil and gas projects – mostly as minority partners, and the damage to these projects will mean damage to the interests of the American oil and gas sector. Among the American senators and congressmen there are enough insane persons ready to just pester Trump, to arrange at least a nuclear war – and the crisis in the oil market will surely not stop them if there is a chance to drop the presidential rating a little. Strangely enough, it is the resistance of the American oil industry that may prove to be the key factor in containing the anti-Russian sanctions policy.
You can, of course, assume that the conditional lobbyists Exxon Mobil or Chevron will be dragged to interrogations in the FBI, but it is still unknown how such attempts end. The influence of large corporations on US policy should not be underestimated, since politicians and businessmen in the American context often do not win politicians, it is in some way the main specificity of our overseas “partners” political formation.
Despite the fact that the logic, conditioned by the desire to protect their Russian investments, is well suited to explain the lobbying efforts of American companies, there is reason to believe that behind these actions there is something more.
In March, when Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak came to the US to meet with the OPEC ministers and for informal communication with the leaders of the US oil sector, we wrote: “OPEC and Russia are luring the US shale: the world is waiting for an oil supercartel. <…> The best strategy for the oil industry will be collusion with OPEC and Russia, which will make it possible to earn much more money, not to participate in price wars, and not to worry about the fact that the fields with a really cheap (in terms of production costs) shale oil are already divided and may soon be depleted. <…> If prices continue to grow in the next six months, and US slates continue to cut forecasts and production plans, it will be possible to state that the global Russian-American-Arab oil cartel has become a reality. “
For obvious reasons, direct and official participation of US oil companies in the OPEC + Russia cartel is impossible, but the numerous hopes of American (and not only American) experts that US oil shale companies would “crush” the price of oil clearly did not materialize.
On the day of the publication of the March material on the new super-card, the price for futures for US crude WTI was 61.35 dollars per barrel, and yesterday it rose to 68.79 dollars. Of course, there may be other reasons for the rise in prices, in addition to concerted actions by oil producers from different countries, but in any case it can be stated that there has been no “filling the market with cheap American oil”. The situation is strikingly shaped so that all participants in the alleged supercarrier – Saudi Arabia, Russia and American oil companies – receive the maximum benefit.
One moment is indicative. In order to explain to the authorities, experts and journalists why there has been no influx of cheap oil shale, the US is using a rather amusing version: American companies claim that in fact there is a lot of oil, but that’s to deliver to the market (that is, to the hubs and refiners factories) they can not “because of logistical restrictions”. Companies that turn billions of dollars and specialize in complex technical facilities have been unable to build a railway and / or pipeline of sufficient capacity for many years, and according to current estimates it will be possible to “expand” logistics only by the second half of 2019, shifted. It seems that either the vaunted American “private traders” are very inefficient,
It is worth paying special attention to plans to formalize the relations of the countries participating in the OPEC + Russia deal, reported by Russian and Saudi officials and actively discussed by Western media. For example, according to Bloomberg’s business information agency, “Russian-Saudi plans to create SuperOPEC can redefine the world order.” The fact is that the new organization, if it will be created, will be very different from the “old OPEC”, and immediately by several key indicators.
First, it will have more opportunities to influence the oil market simply because it will control a larger percentage of global production.
Secondly, it will be very difficult for the new SuperOpen to put pressure on the use of force. Russia demonstrated its capabilities in Syria to protect its national interests far beyond its borders, and this demonstration proved so vivid and effective that even the traditional US allies, Saudi Arabia, are now not afraid to cooperate with Russia even in the face of the explicit displeasure of the American president. And if the version that American oil companies are actually acting as a “shadow member” of this new organization is correct, then it turns out that SuperOpen has serious political and lobbying opportunities that everyone will have to reckon with.
Obviously, such a super-cartel will try to break, and there will be a lot of interested people. The oil market is in some way a “zero-sum game.” That is, every additional dollar earned by exporting countries is an additional dollar spent by importers (for reference: the US is an importing country). If the oil super-cartel lasts a long time, the additional income of Russia will be very significant. True, it will be very important to properly dispose of them – because no cartel lives forever.