The United States seriously took up Iran. After achieving some certainty on the North Korean track of US foreign policy, it was virtually inevitable. In the growing pressure on the Iranian authorities, the administration of Donald Trump in the main allies and geopolitical adherents – Israel and Saudi Arabia. Especially the first one, where immediately after Trump’s arrival to the White House in January of last year, they began to prepare intensively for a large-scale clash with Iran. Up to a direct armed confrontation with the Shiite power. Israel is active in all diplomatic, military-political and even academic fronts.
Thus, on July 11, a conference was held at the Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) in Jerusalem, dedicated to anti-government protests in Iran. According to the media, it was attended by ministers and other high-ranking officials of Israel. Speaking at the event, Energy Minister Yuval Steinitzsuggested that “the economic pressure on Iran will lead to its collapse within one year,” and urged the United States to “drain (financial) resources of the regime in Tehran to force it to dismantle its nuclear program.” According to Steinitz, “Iran should understand that the American attitude to stop the nuclear project is serious and clear” and in the implementation of this aspiration, the matter can reach “military operations (US) against Iran” regardless of where Iranian nuclear facilities are located and what they cover themselves with air defense.
In turn, the organizer of the conference, the head of the JCPA and the former director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Dori Gold, noted that “the Iranian regime has chosen the possession of nuclear weapons instead of economic benefits, and the Iranian society is extremely concerned about this and went to the demonstration.”
The latter actually took place in Iran, and they did not limit themselves only to the period of the end of the past – the beginning of this year. In June, representatives of small and medium-sized businesses of the country, owners of outlets, expressing dissatisfaction with the depreciation of the local currency, rising prices and other economic deprivations of IRI citizens went to the streets of Tehran. For the events at the junction of 2017-2018. The Iranian authorities saw a shadow of American and Israeli special services. In the case of the summer performances in Tehran, they did not begin to pedal this connection.
Recall that the December 28, 2017 protests in the second largest city of Iran, the city of Mashhad, gradually embraced other major settlements of the Islamic Republic. These are the cities of Akhar, Arak, Ize, Kermanshah, Shahrekord, Bender-Abbas, Zanjan, Karadj, Tonkabon, Khorramabad and others. In clashes with the police killed more than 20 people. In addition to socio-economic demands on the authorities, political slogans were also voiced during the demonstrations about the shift of the current government.
The main “designer” of anti-government speeches in Iran, the authorities of this country called a senior official of American foreign intelligence. On 4 January, Iran’s Attorney General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri presented preliminary information on the “conspiracy” of the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia aimed at stirring up unrest in Iran. According to Montazery, the main drafter of the plan was a CIA officer, Michael D’André . “To create unrest in Iran, a special group was created, which included the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The group was headed by Michael D’André and one of the officers associated with the Israeli foreign intelligence service Mossad. All expenses of the group were paid for by Saudi Arabia, “Iran’s Prosecutor General said.
Montazery added that the plan was called the “Consequential Convergence Doctrine” and data for its development had been collected for several years. According to him, the grouping “Organization of the Mujahideen of the Iranian People” (“Mojahedin-e Khalk”, recognized as a terrorist in Iran), and other extremist elements participated in the “CIA project”.
The day before the denunciation of the Iranian prosecutor general, on Jan. 3, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Brig. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, announced the end of the “mutiny” in the cities of Iran. Many “rebels” arrested in Iran because of participation in the riots, were trained in the camps of the terrorist organization “Mojahedin-e Halk,” Jafari said.
The commander of the IRGC pointed out at that time the effective actions of the Corps and other law enforcement bodies of the country, which, as Jafari stressed, were conducted by “small forces”. “The units of the IRGC conducted limited operations only in three provinces – Isfahan, Lourestan and Hamedan, to neutralize the riot,” the Iranian general said.
Later, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated that the mass actions were caused by the interference of other countries “dissatisfied with the success and progress of the Iranian people.” At the same time, he stressed that the protests “should be used to clarify the root problems of the country.”
The American side rejects Tehran’s accusations of organizing and directing the Iranian insurgency, pointing to its internal causes and driving forces. The US acts strictly at a distance and only with the help of sanctions, no more, assure from Washington. Thus, a senior US administration official, Deputy Minister of Finance for Combating Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Sigal Mandelker, earlier linked the recent unrest in Iran with the process of expanding US sanctions against this country. Mandelker paid attention to this connection during her visit to the United Arab Emirates last week.
Arguing on this topic, the deputy head of the US Treasury expressed her hope that the recent protests in Iran “will limit the hostile activity of the local regime throughout the Middle East.” At the same time, Mandelker did not go into details and answer the question whether the Trump administration hopes that by increasing sanctions against Tehran it will achieve the goal of “overthrowing” the Iranian government. “You see how people in Iran, at risk for their lives, loudly protest against corruption in the country,” she said. “Obviously, a lot of money goes to support (by the Iranian government) hostile activity everywhere, with a very small focus on domestic economic problems.”
The United States is determined to demonstrate to Iran that its actions in the Middle East region will have a “really high price” for it. This was during a brief visit to the UAE on Tuesday, July 10, said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo . In an interview with Sky News Arabia, the head of US diplomacy also noted that the focus of Washington’s attention remains the issue of “limiting Iran’s financial capabilities while continuing its current bad behavior.” At the same time, the secretary of state called the goal of extended sanctions the non-Iranian people, but “a regime whose hostile behavior is unacceptable.”
On June 22, the US Secretary of State broke out a series of anti-Iran statements on his Twitter page. According to one of the attacks of the head of the State Department on Iran, this country is ruled by a “criminal regime” that roughly tramples on the rights and freedoms of its citizens. According to Pompeo, the authorities of the Islamic Republic sponsor terrorism, while ordinary Iranians live in poverty.
The Iranian response to the recent accusations of the US almost invariably includes a message to the “big Satan”, with whom there is no way, and indeed need, to enter into negotiations. The reason is known – the Americans do not observe the previous agreements, they break the agreements concluded. Iran does not trust the Trump administration and does not intend to negotiate with it, after a working visit to Moscow and a meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Ali Akbar Velayati,foreign policy adviser to the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. “We do not want to negotiate with the Americans,” he said, answering a question about the possibilities of his meeting with US representatives. – These are people who violate the agreements on Iran, approved by the UN Security Council. For what reason should we trust them, negotiate with them? “.
Exploitation of the image of an external enemy allowed the Iranian authorities, until recently, with varying degrees of efficiency, to solve two fundamental problems of a country of internal character.
The first is the low standard of living of the majority of the population in the 80 millionth Islamic Republic. With the basic set of democratic procedures that exist in it, first of all, the election of the government (of course, with the exception of the institution of the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the state structures derived from it) and the extremely uneven distribution of economic benefits, the government constantly has to take into account the risks of a social explosion. In the forefront of demands from the political leadership, more attention to internal problems – local youth. But in recent years, the “reformer stratum” of Iranian society is constantly replenished with new groups, regardless of age categories and social status. The traditional indication by the IRI authorities of the US as a generator of all ills in Iran in many ways does not work. There was an urgent need for new arguments, explaining the unsatisfactory situation in the country’s economy. The strategy of the “resistance economy” is increasingly perceived by ordinary Iranians as a remnant that does not meet their contemporary needs.
The second chronic problem of Iran’s society and power is a constant struggle between the two main domestic poles of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Local conservatives and reformists with varying success in recent years have sought the favor of an Iranian voter. However, the request for a refom, and with a claim to their systemic nature, finds more supporters in the country. And this leads to a deepening of the known gap in the modern reality of Iran, when its stagnant economic basis is in a significant part in the hands of the conservative “party” of the all-powerful IRGC (1), and the reformist forces demand changes in the political superstructure of the state.
Both of these “painful points” of Iran are trying to take advantage of its geopolitical enemies. And the expansion of American sanctions, with the constant threat that under the pressure of the United States Europeans will not resist and turn off trade and economic ties, investment projects with Iranian partners, is seen by Tehran’s opponents as a key element in provoking the “mullah regime” of the pain syndrome.
Washington is eschewing the talk that the primary objective of the economic war against Tehran (otherwise you will not name it, given the depth and scope of the restrictive measures imposed by the Trump administration, including calls for a total boycott of Iranian oil) is the launching of a revolutionary scenario of a change of power in Iran. However, few people doubt that the US and its allies have this strategic attitude. The anti-Iranian coalition takes the Shiite power into a dense ring of increasing escalation along the entire perimeter of its borders. These internal gaps in the society and the power of Iran will be “fueled” not only by increased sanctions pressure, but also by provoking destabilization in neighboring countries.
Iraq remains vulnerable to the influence of Arabian opponents of Tehran on it. There are American troops stationed there, whose departure from the neighboring Arab Republic of Iran is postponed for an uncertain future. The process of Iran’s coverage of the American military base, its consolidation and improvement in the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, did not cease for a single day.
The Asian belt of Iran generates comparable challenges. Pakistan, although markedly spoiled relations with the United States, but from within is in a very weakened state, is subject to high terrorist threats. The events before the general elections in this country on July 25 – the obvious evidence. Afghanistan remains a “black hole” in the space of the Greater Middle East. Despite the neutral status of Turkmenistan with Iran, relations with Iran have not been developing recently either (recall the famous gas dispute between the two neighbors).
Turkey did not give Iran serious reasons to suspect it in the conduct of a double game. On the contrary, Ankara has spoiled relations with the leading Arab monarchies of the Gulf, confidently returns to the orbit of confrontation with Israel and is balancing on the brink of a break with the American NATO ally. Meanwhile, in Tehran, they realize that the situation of a weakened Iran any government in Ankara will not miss the chance to take advantage. Moreover, if in the Turkish capital from the beginning of “zero” at the helm of the state there is a leader who does not hide his neo-Ottoman claims.
Tehran does not have a serious “insurance” from involving Azerbaijan in US-Israeli plans to destabilize Iran from the northern direction. After recent turbulent events in the second largest Azerbaijani city of Ganja, the leadership of the Caspian republic did not fail to point out that behind this there are “external forces” guarding “religious radicals”. It is not ruled out that experts in Iran in the CIA and the Mossad will try to use the “Ganja dossier”. It is clear, for deepening mutual suspicion between Iran and Azerbaijan.
Finally, even in Armenia, which has a 35-kilometer section of the common border with Iran, last spring there was a “revolution” that did not add confidence to the Iranian authorities in this direction.
President Donald Trump predicts a further escalation in relations between the United States and Iran. Meanwhile, according to him, being under the pressure of the US administration, the Iranian leadership has become “more respectful of America.” Trump said this during a July 12 press conference in Brussels on the margins of the NATO summit. Iran “feels a lot of pain” as a result of expanding sanctions against it, the American leader believes.