Washington may be ready to significantly concede to Russia on Syria over concerns for the southern part of the country, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Amid rumors about preparations for an attack by government forces in the provinces of Quneitra, Sweida, and Daraa, the State Department is drafting a plan to tackle military escalation in the region. In particular, it has an idea in store to dismantle the US base and evacuate opposition forces to the north. Experts interviewed by the newspaper suggest that the US might demand Russia keep Iran out of the southern borders in return.
“The US used to consider the At-Tanf base important not only from the viewpoint of economic pressure on Syrian President Bashar Assad as it blocked the Damascus-Baghdad highway, but also in terms of monitoring Iran’s flurry of activity,” Anton Mardasov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), told the paper. “As a matter of fact, the US has managed to construct another base recently – in Jordan – which is almost adjacent to the Syrian border. Judging by satellite images, it already has helicopters based there. In addition, unmanned aerial vehicles may be deployed there. The US may keep tabs on what’s going on even without At-Tanf. Another matter is that it is unlikely that Washington will dismantle the base just to observe agreements on the southwestern de-escalation zone with Russia. More likely Russia will be asked to influence Iranian activity somehow,” the expert explained.
According to Mardasov, there is evidence indicating that after the US pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal, Tehran started to reduce military activity slightly. “There have been cases of withdrawal of Shiite militia from Syria to Iraq, whereas in the Daraa province, for example, Iranian forces were replaced with those of the Syrian regime,” he told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
“However, concurrently Iranian intelligence is stepping up activities, with Syrians having been actively recruited into local militia groups known as informal divisions of Hezbollah, or ‘Syrian Hezbollah’. Thus, the Iranians are rolling back apparent activities and placing their stakes on local forces, or groups consisting of Syrians,” the expert said, adding that the major question is whether the US and particularly Israel, which has always kept a close eye on any of Iran’s actions close to its borders, are going to put up with Tehran’s recent tactics.