On May 21, the newly-appointed US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo voiced a total of 12 conditions that Iran must fulfill or provide a guarantee that those will be fulfilled in order for the US to return to the Iran nuclear deal that Washington has recently unilaterally abandoned in the violation of all norms of the international law.
American demands can be divided into two categories, those technical that are related to the possible revision of rules of access to Iranian nuclear facilities, and those purely political. Judging by what Mike Pompeo announced, the latter were the primarily goal of Washington’s dubious maneuvering that was staged by the US together with Israel. However, those demands that were political in their nature can be described as absolutely unacceptable for any sovereign state. In fact, they are nothing more than an ultimatum that can be fulfilled by Tehran’s complete and utter surrender to the West. In fact, this all indicates that the United States has very closely approached the tacit declaration of war to Iran, although, of course, much will depend on Tehran’s reaction to these demands, as well as the positions that Russia, China and the EU will take on the issue.
Although it is absolutely clear that there’s no scenario under which Tehran will accept Pompeo’s ultimatum. After all Washington demands complete withdrawal of all Iranian troops from Syria, Iraq and Yemen together with the surrender of all political support of pro-Iranian forces in those states. The demands are extremely tough and Washington put them forward in a time when when it will benefit from them the most, as Tehran has found itself in a disadvantageous position. After all, today it has virtually no military allies that can be described as big geopolitical players. And its has no positions to abandon to make a concession to the West, as the nuclear deal itself was an ultimate compromise on Iran’s part.
China is currently busy mending the Korean crisis, and it is unlikely it is going to risk derailing a possibility of negotiations between Trump and Kim Chen Yin. In addition, it’s the time of the re-signing of the trade agreement between the US and China, and the situation is tricky as now Washington has the right to put forward demands to Chinese companies and impose restrictions on their goods. The negative balance of American trade with China has reached an unprecedented level, even though it has been between two and three hundred billion dollars annually for years now. Washington and Beijing have just agreed to cut it by 200 billion dollars by Beijing agreeing to buy more American goods, among which is US liquefied gas, which is going to inflict massive damage to the interests of both Qatar and Australia. The US threat to impose draconian duties on Chinese goods, of course contradicts WTO rules, but from the standpoint of American interests, of course, those are justified. Across the world one will find no more than 30 countries that have similar trade deficit in trade as China and the US have, so here Trump’s concerns and claims are absolutely understandable. In general, China is not going to help Iran, especially in a situation when it finds itself in a military conflict with Washington. The Middle East as a whole, including Iran, Iraq and Syria, fall into Beijing’s low-priority list. There are enough problems at home from Beijing’s point of view, as China’s economy is in an extremely vulnerable position, and US duties can inflict serious harm upon it. In addition, the forming ambitions of China as a major world power are just that for the time being.
As for the EU, it will be pretty loud in expresses its dissatisfaction with Washington’s policies and can go as far as to test Washington’s patience. But at the same time the same time its trade agreement are at stake, and it still has the headache of protecting Russia’s building pipelines to Europe, which Washington attacks relentlessly. Therefore, the EU will not enter a real confrontation with Washington over Iran under any conditions.
As for Russia, the example of Iran’s latest strikes against the positions of the Syrian armed forced launched by Israel and the United States demonstrated that Moscow will have a pretty restrained approach to this whole situation, that can be described by the formula “this is their conflict, we have nothing to do with it.” Sure, it will make a number of statements about the unacceptable nature of Washington’s actions, but that’s pretty much it. In the event of an armed conflict between Washington and Tehran, Russia will not plunge in the fight on Iran’s side and it’s unlikely it will be providing military assistance to it. It is clear that Netanyahu’s visit to Moscow on May 9 has had both tactical and strategic implications, including those that concern Syria’s and Iran’s future. So the US will be able to bomb Iran as it did with Syria, Iraq or Yemen. From this point of view Iran has found itself in a peculiar situation and he doesn’t seem that it had any illusions to start with.
Moreover, there’s little analogies to be seen between North Korea and Iran. The former was imitated by Kim Jong-un, who consciously raised the degree of tension, forced Trump to lose face with his military exercises, and then proposed a peace deal. Here, the crisis is initiated by the US itself. Moreover, it initiates it deliberately in a time when the situation favors its ultimatum. Most likely, that’s why Trump replaced Tillerson with Pompeo. Personal relations have nothing to do with it, just the nature of the work at hand, as Tillerson played his preparatory part, while Pompeo was put in place to pull the trigger.
Iran has already predictably responded, stating that Washington made an attempt to undermine its sovereignty. The US will have to wait a bit to pretend to be a decent state, than then it will start implementing the things it has been planning for a long time. Trump is doing things tough and harsh, especially in a situation when he created a base for this and favorable conditions for himself. Therefore, if a final decision is made that Iran needs to be driven to the place that Washington assigned for it, the US will do it as efficiently and quickly as possible. No protracted war, but only a series of devastating strikes on Iranian positions in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and possibly against nuclear facilities deep in the territory Iran itself, with the maximum damage and casualties on Iran’s side.
The US goal is to squeeze Iran out of Syria and Iraq, and then starve it with sanctions. And then Washington will keep the Iranian cauldron boiling inside tightly closed until it explodes. The Iranian leadership is developing its country too slowly, paying a lot of attention to the development of “Islamic values”. This, in principle, was justified earlier, but not in today’s world, where eonomic development must also count for something. Today one has to be dynamic in order to manage the role you lay upon your shoulders, as archaic ayatollahs do not quite fit into the current rapidly developing and high-tech world.
Yet another disturbing report came form Iraq, where an influential Iraqi Shia cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr announced that Iranian general Qasem Soleimani that depart from Iraq within 48 hours in an extremely tough and indisputable form. Soleimani moved to the “green zone”, that are out of the grasp of Iraqi authorities. It seems that Shia pro-Iranian groups are getting mobilized in Iraq. Of course, formally Muqtada al-Sadr occupies no official post, since he refused to get one in spite of the fact that a bloc he headed won the parliamentary elections. He intends to remain a purely spiritual leader that is capable of influencing the situation. And now his influence is unparalleled, as he enjoys full support of the sitting Prime Minister of Iraq. Therefore, Haider al-Abadi will have to take the side of al-Sadr in the event of a severe conflict with Iran. And spares no time in making harsh statements these days. In particular, he said that the Iranian forces will suffer a crushing defeat this summer. It was about Syria and Iran. There’s behind the doors discussions that Muqtada al-Sadr has recently been enjoying close ties with Saudi politicians, which, of course, have always been interested in such an ally, as Riyadh remains Iran’s most uncompromising opponent. In general, the signs of military preparations against Iran are now visible. No one can predict when the aggression is going to start, but it is clear and that Iran does not fit into today’s model of US policy, and it doesn’t play a crucial role in anybody else’s plans. In this regard Muqtada al-Sadr is perfectly rational in an attempt to bury one of his two enemies. If there is a chance to get Iran drowned and drive out one occupier from his country – well, why not use it. Then he will try get the United States drowned.
For Russia, this development of the situation around Iran is extremely unfavorable. Should Tehran fall this year, as Muqtada al-Sadr said after contacting with Riyadh, where he was shown all the plans of what is about to happen, Moscow is going next in line. Once Iran is strangled, Washington will waste no time in attempts to get Russia down as well. There will be no direct war, just local strikes on the periphery – in Syria and Ukraine.
It’s clear that gears are turning now.
by Peter Lvov