Any election is a “socially safe” imitation of war. The election of the mayor of Chisinau unfolding in Moldova should be viewed as a projection of parliamentary elections coming in autumn
The format of the Moldovan political confrontation until recently was more than simple: Dodon vs Plahotniuc.
Igor Dodon, President of the Republic of Moldova, and before the presidency – Chairman of the Socialist Party of Moldova.
Plahotniuc, who is sometimes called the “gray elevation” of Moldovan politics. In the hands of this businessman, the oligarch and the chairman of the Democratic Party of Moldova, all power in Moldova is concentrated, including control over the government and parliament.
But Plahotniuc is also an “irritant” for both the population and the establishment of Moldova: a document was submitted to the US Congress in September 2016 with the demand “to check bank fraud involving people like Vladimir Plahotniuc”
So control over the parliament for Plahotniuc is also a matter of survival.
Therefore, no one was surprised that the main candidates for Chisinau mayor’s post were Ion Cheban and Sylvia Radu. Cheban is a socialist and supported by the Socialist Party of Moldova. Silvia Radu positions herself as “independent”, but her background is that of deep connection with Plahotniuc.
Cheban and Radu did enter the top three winners of the first round of elections: Ion – 40.97%, Sylvia third with 17.65%. Nestase – 32.12%. Thus, Plahotniuc dropped out of the game, although he retained the opportunity to bargain.
Nestase is not represented in the parliament, but is known for his protest actions and struggle with Plahotniuc. Nestase himself has connections with the United States – in 2016, he was the author of the above appeal to the US Congress, where Vladimir Plahotniuc “is described as a “puppeteer” of Moldova.
Populist Andrei Nestase “saddled” the most popular political wave – anti-oligarchic. In addition to “anti-oligarchism,” Nestase’s portfolio includes: European integration in the future, integration with Romania in the near future and the end of the “Transnistrian unrest”. That is – the accession of the territory of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic aka Transnistria.
If Andrei Nastase succeeds in the parliamentary elections (and the mayor elections of the capital are their preliminary projection), one should expect an aggravation of the political situation in Transnistria. More precisely – attempts to force “return” of Transnistria into Moldova. Even more precisely – war.
In the case of Igor Dodon’s victory, the possibility of the election results being not recognized with further actions of civil disobedience and power seizure of power is already clearly visible. In short, the revolution.
In chess, “zugzwang” refers to a situation where any move leads to a deterioration in the player’s position. The prospect of Moldova’s further political situation clearly has the features of zugzwang – the War or the Revolution.