The Syrian war is taking on a new dramatic dimension. The Turkish army is conducting a large-scale operation in the north of the country, wickedly called “Olive Branch”. Hundreds of units of heavy military equipment are pulled to the borders of the Kurdish-controlled area around the city of Afrin. Areas of the breakthrough have been outlined.
The Kurds are desperately resisting, but the Turks are unlikely to back down, because the prestige of the country and Erdogan personally is at stake. The operation is motivated by the need to stop the massive “terrorist penetration” from Afrin to Turkey. The goal is to create a “security zone” with a depth of 30 km, which involves the occupation of the entire canton by the Turkish troops.
It is surprising, however, that some circles are rushing to blame Russia for what is happening, referring to the withdrawal on the eve of a small group of Russian military police and advisers from Afrin. They say that they have cleared the way for the Turkish invasion. Unfortunately, the leadership of the Afrinian Kurds also solidified with these circles, as if forgetting that for a long time Russia, while it was possible, was keeping Ankara from interfering.
The regional branch of the Kurdish Party of the Democratic Union and a branch of the “terrorist” Kurdistan Workers’ Party, made a harsh statement, from which it follows that without the permission of global powers, and above all Russia, Turkey could not invade the air space over Afrin. Therefore, Russia, being allegedly a partner of Turkey “in the extermination of civilians”, is equally responsible for bombing, like Turkey itself. The question is, what should a few Russian military men do: cover those who have so far stubbornly refused to listen to their advice with their bodies?
Russia did not abandon the Kurds. It constantly pointed out that the best way for them to solve their national problems was to get closer to Damascus. To prevent Turkey’s invasion of Afrin, the Kurdish leaders should have agreed with the proclamation of the sovereignty of the central government over this area. Even the symbolic entry of the Syrian border guards there, backed by Russia, as it was already in the area of Manbij, would have stopped the Turks. But even now, when the Kurds turned away from Damascus, rejecting all its proposals, the SAA allows them to transfer reinforcements to Afrin from the eastern shore of the Euphrates. And the Syrian state authorities at the international level strongly condemn Turkey’s invasion of its territory.
The reckless obstinacy of the Kurds is simply to explain. They believed in the omnipotence and the disposition of Americans to themselves. An example of a newly flourishing and now lost territory, and a significant share of its economic potential of the Iraqi Kurdistan, seems to have taught them nothing. Confidence in the availability of US support to the Syrian Kurds was given by the Pentagon’s statement about the creation of 30,000 border forces in eastern Syria, the basis of which they expected to compose. They continued to hope for overseas allies contradicting themselves. And completely in vain. The Pentagon statement played the role of the main trigger for Turkey, which began a large-scale “sweep” of Afrin. At the same time, the US, which actually provoked this operation, not only did nothing to stop it, but knew everything about it in advance.
This explains everything. The Pentagon does not care about the interests of the Kurds. It pursues only it’s own interests in Syria. The head of the Central Command of the US Armed Forces, General Joseph Votel, does not seem to notice the Turkish operation, stating that “military sources pay little attention to this zone and are not aware of Ankara’s plans.” The State Department, however, expressed concern over the developments in Afrin, but at the same time recognized the “legitimacy” of Turkey’s concerns about its security as a NATO ally and a critical partner in the fight against the “Islamic State”. It only urged Ankara to “restraint”. Here it is worth noting that any contribution of Turkey to the IS war can not be traced at all, except that most of the foreign fighters of this terrorist organization came to Syria via Turkish territory.
Official Damascus has sharply condemned the Turkish operation in Afrin. However, up to a certain point, it can even extract some benefit from it. While the Turks are concentrated on Afrin, Damascus has untied hands to defeat jihadist groups like the terrorist group “Hayat Tahrir al Sham” in the province of Idlib. In the future, if the Turks retain their military presence in Afrin, relying on the example of the Americans from their SDF and Free Syrian Army, additional obstacles to the reintegration of the country may arise before Damascus. Therefore, the best solution for Ankara would be the transfer of Afrin to the Damascus control. Will there be enough strategic flair for this purpose among the Turkish leadership, the near future will show.