Russian and American analysts are raising alarm: a nuclear catastrophe comparable to Chernobyl is possible in Ukraine. And the probability of this catastrophe is very high because of the ill-considered actions of the Ukrainian leadership.
US analysts from Energy Research & Social Science believe that the probability of a new Chernobyl in Ukraine until 2020 is close to 80%. Such a situation causes them serious concern because of environmental problems that will inevitably arise not only in Ukraine, but also in European countries.
The possible reason for the nuclear threat is an excessive load on Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which are forced to work in emergency mode due to frequent accidents at Ukrainian TPPs, analysts consider.
Big policy is also playing a role. The decision to replace Russian TVEL with American nuclear fuel Westinghouse (bankrupt company, by the way) is dictated not by concern for security, but solely by motives “to annoy Russia.” At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities do not reflect on the fact that nuclear power plants were built for TVEL but not for Western nuclear fuel.
As a result, Ukrainian nuclear power plants regularly experience supernumerary situations and minor accidents. Power blocks are cut off at the South Ukrainian and Rivne NPPs. Sooner or later the accident will not be very shallow. In this case, Europe, in addition to radioactive fallout, will also face a massive influx of refugees from Ukraine, who will seek salvation in European countries.
Analyst Aleksey Gumilev assures: last summer, the Ukrainian nuclear scientists themselves said that the situation is getting out of control. Half of the used power units are obsolete, and there is simply no money for their modernization. It’s about the amount of more than $2 bln.
With such development of events, nuclear energy in Ukraine either completely disappears by 2030, or disappears even earlier because of a terrible accident comparable to Chernobyl.