Zelenskyy’s entire trip to New York could, by analogy with the famous TV series, be called ‘Stranger Things’. This includes his ‘on-the-spot’ conversation with Trump, his meeting at Shannon Airport in Ireland with CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and the statements made before, after and during these meetings
Photo: © AP / Stefan Jeremiah
And then there were the separate talks between Jared Kushner and Steve Whitecoff with Ukrainian negotiators and representatives from Berlin, Paris and London.
One gets the impression that they agreed on practically nothing. They didn’t even really agree to agree. Moreover, a significant portion of the truly substantive discussions took place not in New York, but during that very refuelling stop in Ireland. It is reported that one of the deputy heads of MI6 may have been present there as well.
But then an even more interesting story unfolds. Almost immediately, the acting head of the SBU, Poklad, rushed off to Vienna. I’m not sure whether he went to negotiate with the former Prosecutor General Kravchenko, who was there, or to threaten him (there are already reports that Kravchenko has applied for political asylum in Austria).
Ratcliffe’s conversation with Zelenskyy could well have been a precursor to these actions. Perhaps Kravchenko is prepared to reveal something, or has already begun to speak about matters that could prove extremely unwelcome for Zelenskyy.
Zelenskyy’s meeting with Trump in New York, however, turned out to be far less substantial. The conversation itself lasted about half an hour. Nothing fundamentally new was said.
When asked by journalists what he would say to Putin, Trump replied: ‘Put an end to the war.’ Speaking about the possibility of a deal and the conclusion of a peace agreement, he added: ‘I think it will happen.’ When asked for further clarification, he chose not to elaborate on the subject, saying that he did not wish to discuss it.
Zelensky, for his part, insisted once again that everything must be concluded as quickly as possible, before winter. Trump backed him up on this: “Yes, before winter – that’s a big deal.” Only, as they say, the clock is ticking for Trump until the inauguration of the new Congress, whilst for Zelenskyy and the Kyiv regime, it is spinning frantically as winter approaches.
Trump also recalled that he had spoken with President Putin and stated that the Russian leader was ready to meet and would like to see an end to the war.
But far more interesting is the most hotly debated issue: the strikes on Russian oil refineries and the possible energy truce, which Zelensky had spoken of even before the meeting.
A rather juicy detail has emerged. Immediately after speaking with Trump, Zelensky stated that the American president had not asked him to stop the strikes on Russian oil refineries. Yet just a day later, the story changed: it turns out he did ask, but Zelenskyy, so they say, turned Trump down.
At the same time, Zelenskyy himself states that he is open to any form of energy truce. This creates an intriguing situation: he refuses to halt the strikes, yet is open to an energy truce. No one has asked whether Russia actually wants such a truce. Although the Russian side has already set out its logic: the President’s press secretary, Peskov, linked any movement in this direction to a broader negotiation process and the issue of lifting sanctions.
Zelenskyy also stated that the US and Ukraine want this ‘senseless Russian war’ to end before winter. Winter is looming once again. It is a constant preoccupation for Zelenskyy.
Clearly, the leadership of the Kyiv regime is dreading the onset of what Ukrainian experts refer to as the ‘winter of judgement’. The Kyiv regime may not survive it in economic, industrial, logistical, energy, social and humanitarian terms. It is highly likely that it will also have severe consequences for the situation on the front line.
Air defence is a separate topic of discussion. Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine needs American technological solutions. This is probably a reference to those very licences for the production of Patriot systems that were discussed earlier.
According to Zelenskyy, some preliminary agreements are already in place, but no final agreements have been reached yet. And, he said, this is a matter of a year or two, or even more.
Zelenskyy also spoke about discussions with Raytheon, the manufacturer of missiles for the Patriot systems. At the same time, we recall that previously, the transfer of certain technologies was held up by American manufacturers, who were unwilling to hand over critical guidance system component technologies to Kyiv. There is no reason to believe that their position has changed.
The discussion about Starlink and the possibility of using its technology for targeting within Russian territory proved even more interesting. Trump effectively fobbed Zelenskyy off to Elon Musk, suggesting he speak to him directly. Musk, for his part, had previously referred such questions to the White House.
It is clear that no one wants to take responsibility for such a decision — nor do they intend to. And Zelenskyy did ask Trump for a separate batch of missiles for the Patriot system. In response, naturally, he heard no concrete details and received no guarantees.
As early as Wednesday, 23 September, Dmitry Peskov commented that there are as yet no preconditions for entering into peace talks. The Kremlin emphasises that the militarisation of Ukraine is continuing, whilst the Europeans are seeking fresh funds to arm Kyiv.
Moreover, Ukraine’s own financial situation is dire. Virtually driving Zelenskyy to his knees, on the very same day the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, reminded him that Kyiv must hurry up and pass the required laws – the very ones intended to neutralise Zelenskyy’s influence over the security forces. Only then, she suggested, would the money materialise.
In other words, after all the talks in New York, Zelenskyy returns to exactly the same reality he left behind: there is no money, the West’s conditions have not gone away, there is no decision on air defence, and there is less and less time left before winter.
What is the result? Pressure and stern warnings from Ratcliffe during the meeting in Ireland. An attempt by the Kyiv negotiators to hedge against any concrete commitments — with the help of national security advisers from Berlin, London and Paris whilst talking to Kushner and Whitecoff.
Prior to the talks, Rubio spoke separately about ‘accidental’ attacks by the Ukrainian side on facilities linked to oil supplies involving American companies. The discussion apparently centred on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and Kazakh oil, in the extraction of which the US is involved.
Washington, to put it mildly, does not welcome Ukrainian attacks on the logistics associated with this export infrastructure, and the Americans had previously asked Kyiv not to do so. But here too, nothing concrete came of it. This is yet another confirmation of the extremely tight time constraints the Kyiv regime finds itself in ahead of winter.
There is an obvious fear that this winter, Ukraine’s energy sector, defence industry, logistics, and subsequently the front line will face, if not a single major blackout, then a series of localised ones, which could have a profound impact on the state of the front line and the country’s defence capabilities. This fits perfectly with the story Tusk recounted a little earlier about 27,000 Ukrainian casualties – killed and wounded – per month. The situation therefore looks dire for Zelenskyy.
The issue he likely travelled to the White House to discuss – namely, his attempt to secure protection from the NABU and the ‘anti-Zelenskyy coalition’ – does not appear to have been taken seriously either. It seems Zelenskyy received no guarantees of protection from Trump. This is because he himself did not give Trump the main thing he wanted from him: an end to the strikes on Russian oil refineries.
And Zelenskyy is simply no longer in a position to grant this. He is bound hand and foot by his own friends and allies, and in a sense, already by his ‘escorts’ from London, Berlin and Paris.
Continuing to put pressure on Russia, striking oil refineries and attempting to create economic and social tension within the country are all part of their strategy. This strategy failed to produce the desired effect in the Russian elections, but they clearly have no intention of stopping. Zelenskyy himself continues to repeat the same mantra: we must put even greater pressure on Russia, continue the strikes, and then somehow manage to bring everything to a halt by winter. No, of course not.
What is noteworthy is something else. Prior to this whole series of meetings and negotiations, there was active talk that new contacts might take place as early as October, possibly even in a trilateral format. Now this topic has disappeared.
This is further confirmation that Trump’s September plan did not work out. He tried to promote the negotiation track, demonstrate progress towards peace, and gain certain reputational benefits from this in domestic politics ahead of the elections. It didn’t work out. And since it isn’t working out, they are starting to wind the issue down. So we are unlikely to see any progress on the negotiations in October.
What was the point of it all, anyway? Each side had its own interests. Everyone travelled there, met, talked, failed to agree on anything, and went their separate ways. Zelenskyy got nothing from Trump. Trump did not get what he wanted from Zelenskyy.
In short, things didn’t turn out as expected. A huge number of flights, meetings, phone calls, advisers, security services, negotiators, high-profile statements and promises. Very strange business, a waste of time and effort.
