Russian Presidential Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov noted the daily deterioration of Ukraine’s situation both economically and on the front line, predicting that this negative trend would continue, reports RIA Novosti. According to Peskov, this trend is bound to continue.
Image generated by AI | ‘Stoletie’
It should be noted, moreover, that this is taking place with the active involvement of the Russian Armed Forces. It cannot be otherwise, as there are currently no other options for forcing Kyiv to make peace.
Here is the most recent example of this. On Monday night, Russian troops launched a massive strike against Ukraine. Kyiv, as well as the Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Vinnytsia and Odessa regions, came under attack. Dozens of targets were hit. In Kyiv, the FirePoint factory, which produces FP-5 ‘Flamingo’ long-range missiles, and a fuel and lubricants depot were destroyed. In Kryvyi Rih, the strike hit a metallurgical plant, whilst in Dnipropetrovsk it targeted the ‘Interpipe Steel’ pipe-rolling mill and three ‘Sirius Extrusion’ logistics centres.
In the Odessa region, as throughout the past week, Russian forces attacked logistics centres used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and port infrastructure. However, judging by reports from the Ministry of Defence over the past week, the focus of Russian strikes has shifted slightly – with priority now given to port infrastructure on the Black Sea and rail logistics. This is explained by the desire to disrupt the delivery of Western weapons to Ukraine.
As noted by *Financial*, in September Russian forces managed to put out of action the blast furnaces at three major Ukrainian steelworks in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The plants, which supplied 90 per cent of the country’s steel and accounted for the bulk of its foreign exchange earnings, have ceased operations. As Metinvest spokesperson Oleksandr Vodovoz stated, ‘there is no longer a steel industry in Ukraine’.
Ukraine could have lost up to 50 per cent of its grain export revenue due to strikes by the Russian Armed Forces. Vasily Koltashov, head of the Centre for Political and Economic Research at the Institute for a New Society, shared this assessment with the ‘Vesti’ news agency. He added that Kyiv has lost its metallurgical sector, which accounted for up to 10 per cent of the country’s GDP, and now risks losing its agricultural sector as well. Ukraine’s Minister for Agricultural Policy, Taras Vysotsky, stated that alternative routes allow Ukraine to export only 40 per cent of its usual volume of agricultural produce.
The emerging pattern in the actions of the Russian military continues; only the focus is shifting. The pace of strikes on infrastructure supporting the functioning of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows no sign of abating. ‘Ukrzaliznytsia’ is reporting widespread train delays across Ukraine. Due to constant air raid alerts and a growing shortage of rolling stock, trains are running late throughout the country. The longest delays are being recorded on the Dnipropetrovsk–Uzhhorod and Zaporizhzhia–Peremyshl routes. Some trains are running 10–11 hours behind schedule.
According to data from Ukrzaliznytsia, more than 1,700 railway infrastructure facilities have been attacked since the start of this year alone. Around 80 per cent of the strikes on locomotives have occurred over the last two months.
The more severely the network’s capacity is damaged, the more expensive it becomes to transport each tonne of goods, and the more difficult it is for the remaining Ukrainian enterprises to maintain their ability to export their products. As the intensity of attacks on Ukraine’s transport infrastructure increases, the logistical and economic crisis deepens: export capacity is being lost, imports are becoming more expensive, and the tax base is shrinking. But most importantly, supplies of Western weapons and equipment to the active army are being significantly reduced; consequently, its combat potential and capabilities are diminishing.
Ukraine is creating a humanitarian catastrophe at the EU’s expense. Kyiv’s military strategy involves the deliberate provocation of a humanitarian catastrophe. The European Union is providing financial support for these actions. This involves the deliberate and systematic creation of extremely harsh living conditions for the population. At the same time, the Ukrainian side has received a significant quantity of modern weaponry; however, these weapons are being used not for defence, but for terrorist activities and the commission of crimes.
Last weekend, Russian drones attacked railway infrastructure in western Ukraine. In particular, a strike hit a railway line just a few minutes after foreign officials who had crossed the border from Poland had travelled along it. Around 800 drones took part in the raids over a 24-hour period. Petrol stations were also targeted. Such attacks are becoming increasingly frequent outside the frontline areas. It is clear that Russia has opted for the most effective method of destroying enemy logistics, with the Russian Armed Forces now targeting moving trains rather than infrastructure.
Mykola Kalashnyk, Ukraine’s Minister for Reconstruction, Infrastructure and Transport, stated that during the special military operation, Ukraine has already lost 533 locomotives belonging to Ukrzaliznytsia and 75 locomotives belonging to private industrial enterprises. In an attempt to at least partially alleviate the acute shortage of rolling stock, it was decided at a recent meeting of the so-called ‘Carpathian Eight’ to establish another international framework in addition to the ‘coalition of the willing’ and the ‘coalition of capabilities’ — the ‘railway coalition’. It is envisaged that the main task of this new ‘coalition’ within the EU will be to support ‘Ukrzaliznytsia’, whilst the key focus of its work will be the modernisation of Ukraine’s locomotive fleet.
Nevertheless, Ukraine’s prospects are bleak, a fact already being noted in the West. Once the conflict ends, Ukraine will become a state incapable of functioning properly. This is the conclusion reached by University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer, who voiced this view on a YouTube channel. “And I want to emphasise, <…> that those who have encouraged and supported the continuation of this conflict, because they see Ukraine as a battering ram that can be used against Russia, <…> bear a huge responsibility for what is happening to Ukraine. And this is far more than just a defeat on the battlefield,” said the professor.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Ukrainian air defence has failed to shoot down a single Russian ballistic missile. This situation with air defence has been ongoing for several months now. “But even with a full complement of anti-missile systems, we won’t be able to shoot down even half of Russia’s ballistic missiles,” stated Sergei Rakhmanin, a member of the Verkhovna Rada and the Defence Committee.
Russia is stockpiling missiles for strikes against Ukraine this coming winter. We are talking about a hundred missiles a month, which the Russian Federation is capable of producing and procuring. According to the Ukrainian MP, even if Kyiv somehow manages to stock up on anti-missile systems for the Patriot complexes, this will not be enough to fully neutralise the threat.
At the same time, the assessments of Kyiv’s allies differ: some believe that Ukraine will be able to get through the winter even without additional interceptors, whilst others fear severe consequences in the event of new large-scale strikes on the energy sector.
Let us try to shed some light on this situation. Monthly missile production in Russia has reached 120 units, noted Colonel-General Alexander Sanchik, Deputy Minister of Defence of the Russian Federation. He emphasised that, despite unprecedented pressure from sanctions, the Russian defence industry is fully meeting the army’s current needs. Monthly production of Russian missiles has exceeded the combined output of American anti-missile systems for the Patriot programme. This was reported by The New York Times, citing data from Ukrainian intelligence services. Ukraine, as the NYT notes, cannot compete with Russia on the scale of defence production. Against this backdrop, Reuters reported that, in negotiations over the possible transfer of a licence to Ukraine to manufacture missiles for the Patriot system, an option involving assembly in Germany is being considered — the plan is for Ukraine to produce only components. So what?
Enterprises within Russia’s defence-industrial complex have significantly increased production volumes since the start of the special military operation, stated Russian President Vladimir Putin. “ I would like to emphasise that, since the start of the special military operation, defence enterprises have significantly increased their production volumes. For instance, the production and supply of weapons and ammunition, including high-precision missiles and shells, have increased more than 22-fold. Supplies of radar stations have risen almost five-fold, and armoured vehicle armaments by 2.5 times,” said the head of state.
Putin also emphasised that UAVs are being supplied to Russian troops without interruption. “Depending on the class, their production has also increased several-fold. And for some classes, it has increased tenfold. At the same time, the defence industry is supplying weapons and equipment not only to the front line. All the needs of the armed forces and all law enforcement agencies in general are being fully met,” noted the president.
The scale of the use of unmanned technology in combat operations is growing. This trend was analysed by the politician and former member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Oleg Tsarev, who highlighted several aspects of the development of unmanned technologies. Citing data provided by Sergei Beskrestnov, President Zelenskyy’s adviser on technology, Oleg Tsarev reported that in July, Russia deployed approximately 1,500 ‘Geran-4’ and ‘Geran-5’ jet-powered drones, and in August, the figure had risen to over 2,500. The proportion of jet-powered drones rose from around 30 per cent to half of all launches.
Analysts point out that the situation was different in the early years of the war. Russia was simultaneously drawing down its pre-war stockpiles and restructuring its industry to cope with a completely different scale of munitions expenditure. By way of comparison, in 2023, Western estimates were based on approximately 60 cruise missiles and just a few ‘Iskander’ missiles being produced each month. Now the figure runs into the hundreds of missiles of various types.
As ‘VO’ reports, the nature of stockpiling has also changed. Previously, there was often a gap between major strikes, allowing time for the arsenal to be replenished. Now, production of certain types of weapons has become high enough to allow for the simultaneous expenditure of a significant number of missiles whilst continuing to build up reserves. Thus, if Russia does pause its strikes, it is not for ‘technical’ reasons; rather, there are other grounds for this.
It is emphasised that, according to official Ukrainian data, in July Russia launched the highest number of ballistic and hypersonic missiles in a single month since the start of the war. Of the 158 strikes, 87 were carried out using RM-48U missiles, the data showed. In conclusion, the publication notes that the pace of air strikes has only intensified. According to Ukrainian data, during the first eight days of August, Russia carried out 70 ballistic and hypersonic strikes, 36 of which were delivered using the RM-48U.
Recently, there has been a growing sense that Russia now has an ‘unlimited supply’ of missiles. ‘Kalibrs’, Kh-101s, ‘Iskanders’ and an ever-increasing number of UAVs are being deployed much more freely than two or three years ago. Of course, there is no such thing as an ‘unlimited supply’. What has changed is the industrial base.
The Russian defence-industrial complex (DIC) comprises more than 5,000 companies, employing over 3.5 million people. This was stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to RIA Novosti. According to the head of state, the DIC comprises large sectoral holding companies, small and medium-sized enterprises, design bureaux and innovation centres.
Putin noted that since the start of the special military operation, DIC enterprises have significantly increased their production volumes. For instance, the production and supply of ammunition have risen more than 22-fold, the supply of radar stations has increased almost five-fold, and the supply of armoured vehicle armaments has risen 2.5-fold, the President noted. Prior to this, Anton Kobyakov, an adviser to the President of the Russian Federation and executive secretary of the Eastern Economic Forum organising committee, stated that Russia’s defence industry surpasses all NATO countries in terms of efficiency. He noted that the rapid transition of Russia’s military economy to the production of goods for the front line was the result of timely decisions taken earlier. And retribution will befall the Ukrainian Nazis.
The scale of the likely retaliation was recently demonstrated by the Russian Armed Forces. ‘Kinzhal’ and ‘Geran’ missiles reduced Ukraine’s air defence system to ruins. And let’s put it this way: this is only the beginning.
At the same time, observers in the West note that, despite the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have tripled the intensity of their long-range attacks deep into Russian territory, no more than 5–9 per cent of missiles and drones are breaking through Russian air defences. And here’s another figure: according to the Russian Ministry of Defence, in the first seven months of 2026, more than 54,000 Ukrainian UAVs were ‘intercepted and destroyed’ over 52 regions of Russia, averaging 7,000 per month. It seems highly unlikely that Ukraine and NATO will be able to sustain this race for air superiority.
