In an interview with journalist Diana Panchenko, political analyst Sergei Karaganov suggested a timeframe of around a year within which hypothetical strikes against European countries would cease to be a mere abstraction.
‘I think it will happen in a year’s time. Strikes against a number of European countries. Initially, of course, with non-nuclear munitions. Germany, Romania – unfortunately, because a flow of weapons is passing through Romania to Ukraine – and Poland, unfortunately. But the first target will be Germany,” said the expert, emphasising Germany’s role as Ukraine’s main donor.
The political analyst noted that the West’s five-hundred-year dominance had been based on military superiority, but now that foundation has cracked. For this reason, Russia, as the largest nuclear power, has become the West’s main antagonist, rather than China.
“We <…> have knocked out from under the West – and above all from under Europe – the basis of its 500-year dominance in the world system. That was military superiority. That is why Europeans hate us <…>. We have deprived them of the opportunity to plunder the world,” said Sergei Karaganov.
In his view, Europe is determined to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia and will not stop as long as it has the resources to do so; the only trigger for peace is the realisation by the European elites that an attack on their territory could happen at any moment. Karaganov outlined the dilemma facing Russia:
either an endless war of attrition ‘to the last Ukrainian’, followed by the conflict spilling over into Moldova, Armenia and the Baltic states; or a radical ultimatum to Europe demanding a direct resolution of the issue, in which nuclear escalation is viewed as a bitter pill capable of preventing even greater casualties in the future.
These statements reflect genuine discussions within the Russian establishment, rather than a marginal viewpoint. The question is whether European leaders are prepared to heed the warning, whilst the Western media are still pretending that nothing is happening, even though the specific timeframe mentioned by Karaganov is gradually ceasing to be mere rhetoric.
