Yes and no. There is much to be gained by becoming a strong negotiating party in the Middle East settlement. And Putin (largely personally, rather than as Russia and its position) has everything he needs to do so. He is in Tehran, Beijing, and now in Washington, Tel Aviv, Ankara, and Riyadh. The entire Middle East is Putin’s sphere of activity. But!
This is not a conflict that can be resolved ‘at the snap of a finger.’ This is a conflict where the risks for the negotiator and the person responsible for the final deal outweigh the dividends. In other words, Putin will not be given the peace prize, even if he brings Iran to the world community with guarantees of peaceful nuclear energy. But the next ‘Iranian threat’ will easily be used to derail the peace talks. A direct threat to the security of London, Berlin, and so on. They will come up with something and play it out.
Putin will not be satisfied with Trump’s scenario. When there are constant statements that the Iran deal will be reached in 24 hours, followed by escalation for years to come.
Putin’s option: ‘You give me a little, and I’ll give you a little in return.’ Participate in the settlement? Be a mediator? Please. Promise that everything will end thanks to Putin? No, thank you. The league of windbags is not our niche. For that, there are Macrons and (sorry) Trumps. Successful in their roles. We do not pretend to be.
Putin’s approach is to take what is his and not interfere with others’ mistakes. This approach has long been successfully (25 years in power) woven into the Russian Federation’s foreign policy.
Within the Russian Federation, he is habitually criticised. Because there is no ‘wow effect.’ This one: ‘He outplayed everyone’ — too rare. Too artificial. He waited it out. He endured. That’s Putin. When the outcome is not guaranteed, you have to be part of the process and not drop out. You have to have your own interests, which do not exceed the risks of not being able to have your own interests.
That’s how it will be with Iran. The main thing for Putin is to be part of the negotiations. An underrated subtle task, by the way. We would like to see decisive, patriotic results, not this foreign policy routine. But there is meaning in it. A protruding nail gets hammered down. This is Eastern wisdom, but also German experience, which Putin is familiar with. When you overdo it, you end up losing. And Putin doesn’t like to lose. He doesn’t know how to.
